Births in Germany fall to lowest for a decade

German births have hit their lowest level in a decade while the number of marriages is close to record postwar lows, compounding the demographic challenges facing Europe’s largest economy.

Experts said the weak performance of the German economy, which has barely grown in the four years since the coronavirus pandemic struck, combined with tighter government spending contributed to the drop in the country’s birth rate.

The 693,000 babies born in Germany last year marked the lowest level since 2013, and was a decline of 6.2 per cent from the previous year, according to figures published on Thursday by Destatis, the federal statistical office.

Falling birth rates, ageing societies and shrinking workforces are one of the biggest problems for policymakers across Europe, as they add to the strain on stretched public finances and weaken already tepid growth rates.

The difficulty of tackling Germany’s ageing population was underlined by a 7.6 per cent drop in the number of marriages in the country, which fell to the lowest level since the data began in 1950 — excluding 2021 when pandemic lockdowns caused many nuptials to be postponed.

Economists have warned that if Germany’s birth rate continues to decline it will put downward pressure on its labour force and on economic growth, especially once the large “baby boomer” generation born during the 1950s and 1960s enters retirement.

“As in other European countries, the German birth rate fell in the aftermath of the pandemic, and the overlapping crisis — Ukraine war, high inflation — that followed did not create an environment conducive to having children,” said Michaela Kreyenfeld, sociology professor at the Hertie School in Berlin.

“The birth numbers will inevitably fall as the number of women of childbearing age declines,” she said.

Government reforms in 2005 and 2007 expanded day care provision for children and raised the income for people on parental leave, which lifted the percentage of women in work.

But Kreyenfeld said the situation had deteriorated in recent years. “Due to labour shortages, day care centres cut their opening hours,” she said, adding that a government budget squeeze has “curbed the parental leave for top-earners” and cut the money for expanding day care.

A 2021 Unicef ranking of child care policies in 41 rich countries found Germany came fifth, well ahead of other big EU countries. However, analysts say Germany’s tax system and school hours still discourage women from working.

Germany’s fertility rate — the average number of children per woman — was 1.46 in 2022, in line with the EU average and above countries such as Italy where it dropped to 1.2 last year.

The figure is well below the replacement level of 2.1. However, the fertility rate is lower among women with German citizenship, at 1.36, than for foreign residents at 1.88.

Destatis said the decline in Germany’s birth rate was greater in the former communist east of the country. Births in the east, excluding Berlin, were down 9.2 per cent from the previous year, while they fell 5.9 per cent in the west.

There was a similar pattern in marriages, which declined 9 per cent in eastern Germany and 7.4 per cent in the west.

Germany’s population stagnated at 83.2mn people in 2020 and 2021 after the coronavirus pandemic. But it started growing again in 2022 due to an influx of 1.1mn immigrants mostly from Ukraine after Russia’s invasion. Last year, Destatis estimated the German population rose 0.3 per cent to 84.7mn.

The employment agency has warned that to keep the labour force from shrinking the country needs to attract 400,000 immigrants a year. The government introduced new visa schemes designed to attract more qualified workers last year.

Separate data from Destatis on Thursday showed the number of temporary visas granted to people from non-EU countries to work in Germany in 2023 reached 68,000, more than treble the 2021 level.

A recent study by the council of economic experts, which advises the government, warned that a shrinking labour force and ageing population would cause Germany’s economy to slow from average annual growth rates of 1.4 per cent in the previous decade to only 0.4 per cent in the current decade.

© The Financial Times Limited 2024.
All Rights Reserved. Not to be redistributed, copied or modified in anyway.

Money.it has hosting rights to certain limited Financial Times articles. This is not a live feed of Financial Times content.