Bitcoin will break $1 million by 2033. Is it really possible?

19 June 2024 - 17:00

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That’s why some experts predict that Bitcoin could reach $1 million by 2033, while others expect a new collapse.

Bitcoin will break $1 million by 2033. Is it really possible?

One Bitcoin will be worth $1 million by 2033. But is it really possible? In an era where cryptocurrency forecasts are as volatile as the market itself, the debate that the world’s first cryptocurrency could grow by 1,518% within the next decade has become a hot topic in the world of finance and cryptocurrencies. Some experts argue that Bitcoin, thanks to growing institutional adoption and technological advances, could reach this ambitious valuation. Others, however, remain skeptical, highlighting the risks linked to market volatility, uncertain regulations, and possible speculative bubbles.

This article will explore both perspectives, starting from Bernstein’s optimistic predictions to the potential causes of a Bitcoin collapse, analyzing the arguments on both sides to provide a balanced and informed view of this complex and fascinating topic.

Bitcoin will be worth $1 million by 2033 according to Bernstein

Bernstein, one of the most respected financial analysis firms, recently released a report predicting that Bitcoin will reach one million dollars by 2033. This prediction is supported by several key factors that, according to analysts, will push the value of Bitcoin to unprecedented levels.

1. Growing institutional adoption
A major driver of this prediction is increased institutional adoption. More and more financial institutions are starting to see Bitcoin not only as a store of value but also as a strategic asset. The introduction of Bitcoin spot ETFs has significantly increased demand, as they offer a regulated and secure way for institutional investors to gain exposure to Bitcoin without having to purchase and manage the cryptocurrencies directly.

2. Dynamic offer and halving
Bitcoin’s supply dynamics play a crucial role. Every four years, the reward for mining new Bitcoin blocks is halved, reducing the supply of new Bitcoin on the market. This process, known as “halving,” has historically led to rising prices, as scarcity increases demand. Bernstein analysts believe that halving events expected in the coming years will continue to reduce available supply, thus supporting prices.

Taker buy sell ratio of Bitcoin
Source: CryptoQuant

3. Utilities of Blockchain
Some experts consider the Bitcoin blockchain to be a revolutionary technology that can go beyond simple value transfer. Rob Chang highlighted how the Bitcoin blockchain can be used for identity verification in the age of artificial intelligence and deepfakes. The security, transparency, and immutability of blockchain make it ideal for applications that require a high degree of trust and data integrity.

4. Large Enterprise Support
A case in point is MicroStrategy, which has invested heavily in Bitcoin and currently holds approximately 1.1% of the global supply. The company has transformed its business strategy to focus on acquiring Bitcoin as a backup asset, attracting significant capital and positioning itself as a leader in the cryptocurrency industry. This type of support from large corporations not only gives Bitcoin legitimacy but also increases institutional demand for it.

5. Specific forecasts
According to Bernstein, Bitcoin could reach $200,000 by 2025 , with a target price of $500,000 by 2029, with a path that will culminate in a value of one million dollars by 2033. Analysts base these estimates on an increase in demand for spot ETFs and a limited supply of cryptocurrencies, making Bitcoin increasingly scarce and valuable.

Bitcoin weekly graph
Source: Tradingview

Why Bitcoin could collapse again

Despite the optimistic forecasts, several factors could lead to a drastic decline in the value of Bitcoin. Skeptical analysts warn that the current euphoria may be unsustainable and that the inherently volatile cryptocurrency market could see significant corrections.

1. Technical factors
Technical analysis suggests that Bitcoin could undergo a significant correction in the near term. The significant increase in Bitcoin futures open interest is a relevant sign of a potentially overexposed market. Open interest represents the total sum of futures contracts still unsettled and its increase suggests an increase in investor leverage and exposure in the cryptocurrency market. Historically, such spikes in open interest have often preceded significant price corrections, as investors, to mitigate risk, are inclined to liquidate positions to protect their gains or limit losses. This phenomenon can amplify Bitcoin’s volatility, as sales could generate a domino effect, further influencing market sentiment and leading to a decline in prices.

Open interest on Bitcoin’s futures
Source: Coinglass

2. Psychological resistance and price corrections
The $72,000 level is seen as a crucial psychological resistance for Bitcoin. Numerous attempts to cross this threshold have been rejected, suggesting the market may not be ready to support higher prices. In the absence of a decisive close above this level, Bitcoin could see a downward correction, with the risk of falling below $68,000.

3. Risk of FOMO and liquidations
Analysts at Glassnode note that currently the majority of long-term Bitcoin holders are profitable, but a high number of profitable holders often indicates excessive optimism preceding the price corrections. An increase in profit holders could trigger the FOMO (Fear Of Missing Out) phenomenon, where investors, fearful of missing out on further earnings, increase demand excessively. This behavior, however, could cause significant corrections when the market reaches its peak and investors begin to liquidate their positions to cash in on profits.

Thermal map of Bitcoin’s liquidation
Source: Coinglass

4. Market volatility
The inherent volatility of the cryptocurrency market represents an ongoing risk. Macroeconomic events, unfavorable regulations, or changes in investor sentiment can lead to rapid changes in prices. The history of Bitcoin is full of spectacular rises followed by equally spectacular collapses, and there is no guarantee that the future will be different.

5. Regulation
Regulatory concerns represent another significant risk. Governments and regulators around the world are looking for ways to control and tax cryptocurrencies. Stricter regulations could limit investor access and increase compliance costs, negatively impacting the price of Bitcoin.

The debate on the future of Bitcoin is therefore complex and multifaceted. Whether Bitcoin will truly reach $1 million by 2033 remains an open question, influenced by a multitude of factors that will need to be closely monitored over the next decade.

The information and considerations in this article should not be used as the sole or primary basis for making investment decisions. The reader maintains full freedom in his own investment choices and full responsibility in making them, since he alone knows his risk propensity and his time horizon. The information contained in the article is provided for informational purposes only and its disclosure does not constitute and should not be considered an offer or solicitation to the public for savings.|

Original article published on Italy 2024-06-17 15:02:00. Original title: Un Bitcoin varrà 1 milione di dollari entro il 2033. Ma è davvero possibile?

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