Ukraine is a very large and populous country. Its reconstruction will bring immense benefits to the European Union.
The European Union greenlit accession talks for Ukraine and Moldova, signaling a move forward in EU expansionism and, most likely future reformation processes. Ukraine and Moldova are two strategically crucial countries, although they also represent the poorest nations on the continent.
Accession into the European Union, the largest common market on the planet with a combined GDP of $18.35 trillion, would ensure Ukraine a peaceful and thriving future. Some analysts argue, however, that it will completely change the political landscape of Europe, and not necessarily in a good way.
Ukraine would become the country with the highest population joining the EU since the 1980s. This would give her a lot of voting power within the EU institutions, that often work on a population basis.
At the same time, Ukraine is a country devastated by war. According to the World Bank, the total amount needed for the country’s reconstruction is $400 billion, which the EU’s net payers would incur in case of accession. To put that into perspective, Bulgaria is the poorest country in the EU, but its GDP per capita is still double that of Ukraine.
And that’s without mentioning the current state of the war. If, as it appears likely, the conflict against Russia freezes on the current frontline without any peace agreement, the EU would be carrying inside its borders a country at war with a nuclear power.
Despite all these challenges, however, having Ukraine inside the EU might achieve extremely positive effects in the long term.
A new Poland?
The EU’s eastward expansion started in the 1990s, after the fall of the Berlin Wall and the collapse of the Warsaw Pact. The countries that joined the EU then, including Poland, Romania, Hungary, and the Baltic Republics, were not in a much better position than Ukraine today.
Over the following 30 years, however, these countries experienced some of the fastest economic growth anywhere in the world. Poland is today a thriving and influential economy, while Western European countries are falling into a recession. Indeed, the main reason why the EU’s GDP keeps growing is precisely because of these countries.
Looking back in history, when the United States financed Western Europe’s growth with the Marshall Plan, they did so thinking about the benefit of both continents. That is, after all, the very definition of an investment: spending money to make money.
It will be extremely expensive for the European Union to rebuild the Ukrainian economy, but having one of the world’s largest grain exporters inside the single market will also benefit the EU immensely. Ukraine’s growth will enhance the EU’s growth. This is how it has always worked after destructive wars.
