Bitcoin is falling just when it should have shined. Between macroeconomics, historical cycles, and models that fail, a fragile equilibrium reveals a potential breaking point.
There’s a clear, almost ironic paradox. At a historical moment when the Bitcoin price should have shone, demonstrating to the world its countercyclical and independent nature, it is instead sliding. Why? Many attribute the correction to macroeconomic conditions in the United States, almost forgetting that Bitcoin was born as a decentralized asset, theoretically independent of political and monetary choices.
Others, still faithful to the on-chain interpretation, rely on quantitative models designed to identify market bottoms, but even there something seems to be cracking. The result is a complex picture, full of apparent contradictions. Here’s what you really need to know.
The weight of macroeconomic expectations on Bitcoin
Cryptocurrencies haven’t declined by chance in recent months. They have been weighed down by a sharp shift in macroeconomic expectations. Until recently, the U.S. macro backdrop was almost “ideal”: solid economic growth combined with expectations of imminent interest-rate cuts by the Federal Reserve — a combination that has historically supported risk assets, including Bitcoin.
But that picture has deteriorated. Questions about the resilience of the U.S. labor market, early signs of stress in credit conditions, and, above all, uncertainty over the Fed’s rate-cut trajectory have undermined overall sentiment. The possibility that the Fed may cut more slowly than expected — or delay cuts further — is weighing heavily on risk appetite.
In this environment, Bitcoin is no longer perceived as an isolated asset. It has become an integral component of institutional portfolios, moving with broader markets and reacting to macro shocks like any other asset class. Its role within asset allocation has changed, meaning it now prices in economic cycles just like equities, the S&P 500, or other high-beta instruments.
The Nervousness of the "4-Year Cycle"
Beyond macro factors, there is another — more psychological yet still powerful — element: the narrative of the 4-year cycle. For fifteen years, the crypto ecosystem was young and largely driven by primordial market dynamics. Everything appeared to follow a clear cyclical sequence: accumulation, expansion, top, bear market.
We are now roughly three years into the current cycle. More experienced investors, conditioned by previous patterns, can’t help but wonder whether the cycle top has already been reached. It is not entirely rational, but in financial markets, beliefs often shape outcomes. Nervousness is fueled precisely by the coexistence of apparently solid data and emotional dynamics inherited from the sector’s past.
In other words, many expect a retracement “because it has always happened in previous cycles.” It’s the narrative itself that generates uncertainty. It’s the pattern that creates fear.
Bitcoin is no longer isolated
Crypto is now worth nearly $4 trillion and has become a true alternative asset class. It sits in institutional portfolios, on trading desks, and within macro models. It can no longer be treated as an isolated phenomenon — and this radically changes the analytical approach.
Its correlation with developments in the real economy has increased, as has its sensitivity to inflation data, labor-market indicators, and financial-conditions metrics. Ignoring this shift is like reading charts as if it were still 2015. The market has matured — and so have the investors who influence its price.
Stock-to-flow, scarcity, and true narrative risk
When discussing potential market bottoms, the stock-to-flow model invariably resurfaces — the framework that links Bitcoin’s programmed scarcity to its theoretical fair-value range. And this is precisely where one of the most delicate issues arises.
Today, Bitcoin is trading below the “implied value” suggested by the stock-to-flow model. Historically, such extended undervaluation has been rare, typically occurring only during periods of extreme market stress.
For this reason, envisioning a collapse similar to past bear markets would be almost paradoxical. A severe drawdown today would undermine Bitcoin’s core narrative — that of programmed scarcity and the intrinsic value attributed to it. It wouldn’t be just another correction; it would inflict structural damage on its economic identity.
This is why several analysts believe that downside potential may be more contained than in previous cycles. Today’s market features more instruments, more liquidity, more participants, and, crucially, an investor base that no longer treats Bitcoin as an asset destined for “total capitulation.”
The role of charts: everything depends on the RSI
In such a complex environment, technical analysis serves as confirmation rather than a stand-alone compass. A key level — almost obsessively monitored by analysts — is the 30-point RSI, particularly on the weekly timeframe. Historically, a weekly RSI of 30 signals deeply oversold conditions and often aligns with accumulation phases.
Reaching or approaching that threshold could indicate the real inflection point: either confirmation of a broader macro downtrend or the first signal that selling pressure is losing steam.
The goal isn’t to “predict the bottom.” The goal is to understand where the market stands in relation to macro risk and how much of that risk is already priced in.
Between scenario, psychology, and real risk
Bitcoin isn’t falling “for no reason.” It is the intersection of macro drivers, sentiment, historical cycles, and heightened expectations that is making the current environment unstable. There’s no point in feeding FOMO or fear: context is what matters.
We are dealing with an asset that now reacts to macroeconomic stimuli like any other major asset class, which means that market declines may be more rational than they appear. At the same time, market maturity and the scarcity narrative continue to act as a natural brake on catastrophic scenarios.
The real question isn’t how far it can fall, but how much of the current weakness has already been priced in — and how much investor psychology will shape the path from here.
Original article published on Money.it Italy 2025-11-24 19:07:00. Original title: Fino a dove può crollare il prezzo del Bitcoin?
