Viktor Orban rules Hungary since 2010, but his power has never been more shaky. After losing his Eastern European allies, the EU proposed huge sanctions against Budapest. Orban has three months to reverse this decision.
It appears that Viktor Orban is realizing the mistakes he’s made in the past year. Despite winning his 4th consecutive mandate as Prime Minister of Hungary last April, he deteriorated his relations with the remaining allies he’s got inside the European Union. Brussels never had a high opinion about Orban, given his increasing authoritarian tendencies, but couldn’t do very much against him given the solid net of alliances he formed in the East. After the invasion of Ukraine, however, Orban’s vocal support of Vladimir Putin cost him the friendship with the Visegrad Group. Eastern Europe cannot stand for Orban anymore, not unless he changes his views on Russia.
Furthermore, the constant human rights violations endured by the Hungarian population could not be tolerated by Brussels anymore, which decided to take action last Sunday. EU executives proposed the biggest sanction on Hungary to date, cutting short the Recovery Fund money destined to Budapest. The 7.5 billion euros worth of funds amounted for 5% of Hungary’s GDP.
The proposed sanctions will now be discussed and voted on by the 27 EU members, whose final decision will come in 3 months. Orban can use this time to reverse his actions and come to senses with Brussels. It appears that he has already started doing so, drafting an anti-corruption bill that should take effect in the following weeks.
What are Hungary’s human rights violations
As the Hungarian Justice Minister talks about the new anti-corruption bill, which is supposed to allow Hungarian authorities access to the EU Anti-Fraud Commission hence making sure that EU funds don’t go wasted to corruption, many wonder if Orban is going to address the several accusations of denying human rights.
Such accusations aim especially to Hungary’s laws against LGBTQ citizens, as well as women’s fundamental rights for abortion. According to Hungarian law, for example, marriage is considered only between heterosexual couples, and same-sex child adoption is strictly forbidden. Furthermore, a recent law requires aborting women to listen to the child’s heartbeat, a measure that many deem as psychological violence.
What can we expect from the future
Sadly, it is unlikely that Orban will change his views in the short term. He might have lost his allies, but Hungary is far from the only European country with severe human rights violations. Poland, for example, has historically always supported Hungary’s policies against LGBTQ members.
Orban could also see renewed support from Italy if the far-right wins the next General Elections, set to happen on the 25th of September. Italian far-right parties like Lega or Fratelli d’Italia were and still are close Hungarian allies. Their win could mean that no sanction will fall upon Hungary, with or without an anti-corruption law.
