According to the latest OECD estimates, which countries will grow the most?
The OECD says the global economy is stabilizing and the surge in inflation has passed, allowing central banks to continue cautiously easing monetary policy.
Global economic growth has remained resilient in recent months, with inflation continuing to moderate and indicators suggesting continued momentum in services, the Paris-based organization said in a September update.
The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development forecasts the global economy to grow 3.2% this year and next, raising its estimate for 2024 from 3.1% and leaving its estimate for 2025 unchanged.
The OECD also warned that significant risks to the global economy remain. These include geopolitical and trade tensions, weak labor markets that undermine economic growth, and shocks in the disinflation process that trigger upheavals in financial markets.
Finally, the updated estimates highlight the different performances of countries, with some powers stronger than others in the economic recovery. China, USA, Eurozone, emerging markets: which region of the world will drag the global economy? The 2024 and 2025 OECD charts show the estimates of the different states.
Who is growing the most in the world according to the OECD?
In summary, the OECD analysis decreed that growth was robust in the United States, the United Kingdom, Canada, and Spain. Domestic demand supported activity in Brazil, India, and Indonesia.
The report states in detail that: “growth was relatively robust in many G20 countries, including the United States, Brazil, India, Indonesia and the United Kingdom. In contrast, results remained weak in some economies, including Germany, and output contracted in Argentina.”
Looking at OECD estimates, it emerges that the first EU country in the 2024 ranking for the highest growth is Spain, long observed for its excellent economic performance that has effectively denied the label of a weak nation in Europe.
As for the other EU members, compared to +2.6% for Spanish GDP, the French one is estimated to grow by 1.1% in 2024. Italy is expected to end the year with a +0.8%, just above the Eurozone average. Without great surprises, on the other hand, Germany with a miserable +0.1%.
To understand in detail which countries are expected to grow the most in the world in 2024 and 2025, the OECD charts are useful tools:
India stands out as the most promising economy and also noteworthy is the GDP of +3.7% in 2025 of Saudi Arabia. Russia, on the other hand, mired in the war in Ukraine, will probably grow only 1.1% next year compared to the jump of +3.7% in 2024.
As for the major world powers, according to the OECD, GDP in the United States will slow growth, however “cushioned by the easing of monetary policy, with a growth expected of 2.6% in 2024 and 1.6% in 2025”. The euro area will see GDP at +0.7% in 2024 and +1.3% in 2025, “with activity supported by a recovery in real incomes and an improvement in credit availability”.
China will slow, with +4.9% in 2024 and +4.5% in 2025. The 5% target seems distant, although the OECD sees positively a further policy stimulus, offset however by weak consumer demand and the deep correction underway in the real estate sector.
Original article published on Money.it Italy 2024-09-25 13:14:57. Original title: Previsioni di crescita OCSE, quali sono i Paesi più forti?
