As many European nations share worries on the current gas crisis, the International Energy Agency (IEA) warns that the real challenge lies ahead.
Winter is coming, and this time not just in a popular HBO TV series. As Europe and the US approach winter, many ask themselves how bad it is going to be. The energy war that is being consumed between the West and Russia will likely leave Europe in the cold, as 40% of EU gas comes from Moscow’s pipelines.
After the invasion of Ukraine, now 7 months old, Europe stood united against Russia in a series of economic sanctions that only recently reached the 8th consecutive package. With Russian gas and oil compromised, the west did not receive any compassion from OPEC which cut oil exports even further.
But the EU does not want to look intimidated. Vladimir Putin’s bet is that European countries will bail out under the cold, giving up on sanctions and, more importantly for him, stopping the supply of weapons to Ukraine. But no EU member state, with the notorious exception of Hungary, seems to be willing to take steps back, instead bracing for the coming winter.
Indeed, many European nations are testing different strategies to save up gas and make the winter more bearable for their citizens. Germany, which vetoed a unified price cap on gas, decided to borrow 200 billion euros in foreign debt precisely to finance this move internally. The United Kingdom stands out again for its pragmatism, proposing a 3-hour cut in electricity every day if the circumstances require it.
Finally, almost every nation is starting back their fossil fuel power plants, having turned them off years back for environmental reasons.
But others fear that the real challenge lies ahead.
Why we might be spared from an energy crisis
Among European panic for the upcoming winter, the International Energy Agency (IEA) shares a different view than everyone else.
IEA’s Executive Director, Fatih Birol, pointed out that European gas storages are almost full. Indeed, after the invasion of Ukraine every EU nation understood the danger and immediately started buying more gas in order to fill up their storage, which is not at a continental average of 90%.
This means that, all things being equal, Europe will actually do fine this winter. As the war in Ukraine worsenes, Russia will likely close every tap that keeps fueling gas to Europe still to this day. But at that point European gas storages will be completely full, and will be able to burn them off during the winter.
The real problem, according to Birol, lies ahead. As spring starts nex march, Europe’s storage of gas will be down to 20/30%, and then the question of how to fill it up again will come back to haunt the EU.
But this leaves much needed breathing room to European nations, which have a full year to plan a strategy for the next winter. Russia might not be able to sustain the war for this long, and Putin would lose his bet.
