Bitcoin between structural strength and technical fragility. The key levels few observe tell a different story, one of cycles, liquidity, and asymmetric risk.
No one really talks about the real risk behind Bitcoin. The dominant narrative portrays it as an asset inevitably destined to appreciate, almost as if it were a natural law. And it’s true that, in the long term, scarcity models and on-chain metrics like the hashrate model reinforce a structurally bullish thesis. But the market isn’t just about the long term. In the short and medium term, Bitcoin remains a pure financial asset, governed by supply and demand, liquidity, and positioning. And these factors follow well-defined cycles.
If a violent rally after the halving is accepted as normal, why is the possibility of a downturn always dismissed? It is precisely from this narrative asymmetry that the most underestimated risk of the moment arises.
The cycle everyone sees, and the one few analyze
The danger most market participants recognize is the classic four-year Bitcoin cycle, punctuated by the halving. Every four years, the reward for miners is halved, structurally reducing the supply of new BTC entering the market. Historically, this supply shock has triggered expansion phases culminating in pronounced bull markets, followed by extended corrective periods.
This pattern has taken on an almost dogmatic tone over the years. Halving equals bull market, bull market equals new highs, and finally, inevitable bear market. It’s a useful framework, but also dangerously simplified. Markets tend to discount what is known, and the halving cycle is probably the most well-known and internalized variable in the crypto ecosystem today. Precisely for this reason, the risk lies not so much in the cycle itself, but in the technical dynamics that can anticipate or amplify downturns.
When technicals precede narrative
Historically, declines are always justified a posteriori. Today it will be macro factors, tomorrow regulation, the day after monetary policy. But even before a coherent narrative emerges, it is often technical analysis that provides the first signs of stress.
After the return above the $90,000 area, sentiment on Bitcoin had quickly normalized. The worst seemed to be behind us, and the previous high zone once again appeared as simple consolidation. However, the return below these levels is not a negligible detail. From a technical standpoint, it resembles a structure dangerously similar to a bull trap.
What is a bull trap and why is it insidious
A bull trap is a market configuration in which the price breaks above a key resistance, inducing new buying and seemingly confirming the continuation of the uptrend, only to then abruptly reverse and fall back below that level. The result is twofold: it traps late buyers and reinforces bearish pressure when they are forced to liquidate positions.
In the case of Bitcoin, the drop below the $90,000 area reinforces the hypothesis that the previous movement was more of a liquidity lure than a true structural recovery.
The critical role of $80,000
The real technical crux lies lower, near $80,000. This area represents a significant POC, or Point of Control, the price level where the highest trading volume is concentrated during a market phase. POCs tend to act as price magnets, attracting the price in moments of uncertainty.
A decline toward this zone would not in itself be anomalous. Indeed, from a purely statistical standpoint, it would be consistent with a market rebalancing phase. The problem arises if this level is decisively breached to the downside. In that case, the risk is not merely a continuation of the downward movement, but an acceleration.
Derivatives, Liquidations, and Risk Asymmetry
Below $80,000, the structure of the derivatives market becomes a decisive factor. In recent months, positioning has progressively shifted toward the long side, especially among traders who entered above the $100,000 area. A bearish breach of such a significant technical level could trigger a cascade of forced sell orders, including stop-loss triggers and automatic liquidations.
This mechanism amplifies market moves, transforming a technical correction into a sharp drawdown. This is where the risk becomes tangible, particularly for participants who have built positions with an emotional rather than strategic horizon.
The real risk is not the price, but the structure
The key issue is not whether Bitcoin will rise again in the long term. That debate remains open but reasoned. The real risk today is structural and technical. It is the illusion of linearity in a market that by definition is cyclical, asymmetric, and dominated by liquidity. Ignoring these signals means confusing an investment thesis with faith.
So?
Recognizing risk does not mean denying potential. It means respecting the market. Bitcoin remains a young, powerful, and profoundly volatile asset. Understanding its technical dynamics serves not to create fear, but awareness. In a context where euphoria often outweighs analysis, true protection is not predicting the future, but preparing for less comfortable scenarios. Without FOMO, without dogma, but with method.
Original article published on Money.it Italy 2025-12-17 09:56:00. Original title: Il (vero) rischio per il Bitcoin adesso è questo
