Labor leader Keir Starmer intends to strengthen cooperation with Olaf Scholz’s Germany - a plan that, however, contains many pitfalls. Here’s why.
More than 8 years after the referendum that sanctioned the exit of the United Kingdom from the European Union, the country continues to deal with Brexit. With the clear victory of the Labour Party of Keir Starmer in the last general election, the new British government has undertaken diplomatic action aimed at signing a treaty with Germany of Olaf Scholz. The United Kingdom-Germany treaty sponsored by the two left-wing leaders is in fact a bilateral agreement that would aim to strengthen relations between the two countries, especially in a post-Brexit context. The main objective of this treaty would be to improve cooperation in key areas such as trade, security, foreign policy and migration, trying to mitigate the negative effects of Brexit and to establish new bases for closer collaboration between the United Kingdom and Germany. Will it work?
Starmer in Germany with his hat in his hand
Starmer sees the treaty as an opportunity to rekindle closer ties with Europe, though not with the EU as a whole. However, his approach could weaken the UK’s negotiating position, especially if it appears too compliant with EU or German demands, risking compromising Britain’s national interests. As the Telegraph, commenting on the Labour PM’s trip to Berlin, as a fervent Europhile, notes: “Starmer’s attitude is to go to Europe with his hat in his hand, apologise for Brexit and try to conform to EU rules wherever he can. This is hardly an approach suited to waging tough negotiations on trade, migration and other bilateral issues that would be in Britain’s national interest.” Indeed, the paper notes, “Brussels is already pushing back, insisting that any deal to allow Germans to live and work in the UK must apply equally to all EU citizens.”
According to the Telegraph, Anglo-German cooperation could be particularly fruitful in science and technology, particularly artificial intelligence (AI), an area in which the UK is ahead of its European peers. A collaboration that combines British innovation and German investment would be a win-win situation for both countries. However, Rishi Sunak’s plan to invest £1.3bn in advanced AI technologies, including the University of Edinburgh’s "exascale" computer, was recently quashed by Rachel Reeves, Chancellor of the Exchequer.
A new referendum by 2040
On Brexit, as Politico notes, political scientist John Curtice has predicted that another referendum on the UK’s membership in the EU could be held within the next 16 years, before 2040. Curtice, a well-known professor of politics and respected pollster, compared the 2016 referendum to that of 1975, which brought the UK into the European Community. The possibility of a new referendum depends on future political uncertainties but is also influenced by the generational differences in the 2016 vote, with young people more in favour of remaining in the EU. Curtice stressed that the position of the Labour government will be crucial in the evolution of relations with the EU. Although Starmer’s party has ruled out the idea of rejoining the EU or its single market, Curtice noted that the majority of the Labour electorate is strongly anti-Brexit.
The UK’s relationship with the EU after Brexit
The UK decided to leave the European Union in a referendum on 23 June 2016, starting the process of withdrawal of a member state for the first time. On 29 March 2017, the British government formally notified its intention to leave, triggering Article 50 of the Treaty on European Union. After almost three years of negotiations, the European Parliament and the Council of the EU approved the Withdrawal Agreement, which entered into force on 1 February 2020. This agreement regulated the UK’s exit, protecting citizens and businesses and establishing a transition period until 31 December 2020, during which EU rules continued to apply.
At the end of this period, a new trade and cooperation agreement was signed between the EU and the UK, which entered into force on 1 May 2021. EU-UK relations are therefore currently governed by four treaties: the Withdrawal Agreement, the above-mentioned EU-UK Trade and Cooperation Agreement (TCA), the EU-UK Security of Information Agreement and the EU-UK Agreement on Cooperation for the Safe and Peaceful Use of Nuclear Energy.
Original article published on Money.it Italy 2024-09-05 06:34:00. Original title: Ecco il piano di Sir Keir Starmer per la Brexit
