Despite the judicial troubles, Donald Trump will be on the field in the 2024 US elections: however, the polls show the incumbent president Joe Biden recovering but the game is more than open.
Can Donald Trump win the 2024 US election? A little over a year after the presidential elections, this is a particularly topical question not only in the United States but also among the chancelleries of the rest of the world given the inevitable repercussions that the overseas vote will have.
Despite the judicial vicissitudes, barring sensational twists Donald Trump will be in the field in the Republican Party primaries which will kick off next year: his main challenger will be Ron DeSantis, governor of Florida who has bad relations with the tycoon.
Nevertheless, the polls for the GOP primaries speak for themselves: Trump would have an advantage over DeSantis of more than thirty points, with all the other candidates indicated at a sidereal distance from the former president.
Even on the Democratic Party front, there would seem to be no match, with Joe Biden having an advantage in the primaries in this case indicated by well over forty points.
In short, 2024 US elections will likely be a repetition of the Biden-Trump challenge.
Trump, Biden, and the polls for the 2024 US elections
The presidential elections in the United States are the political event par excellence; with the war in Ukraine destabilizing the international geopolitical scenario, this vote is destined to assume even more importance.
Indeed, Donald Trump has accused Joe Biden many times of wanting to drag the United States towards "World War III", later declaring that he wants to end the conflict "in twenty-four hours ” once he returns to the White House.
Given the premises, the 2024 US elections could represent a watershed not only for US domestic policies but also for international ones due to the renewed tensions with China over the Taiwan question.
A year ago, according to the surveys carried out overseas, the rate of disapproval of Joe Biden’s mandate reached a peak of 57%; twelve months from now, the bar could drop to 53%.
Even in the polls for the presidential elections, Biden is recovering: according to the average of the latest surveys carried out in the USA, the incumbent president has a 0.2% advantage over Trump.
A situation that at the moment appears to be of absolute parity, with the States in the balance which, as happened in 2020, will be decisive in determining who will win the next elections.
A lot will depend on the Ukraine war outcome: if Biden shows up to the polls with chaos in Europe, then Trump’s chances of victory could increase but, in the event of a truce satisfactory for Washington, the tycoon would lose the main argument of his electoral campaign.
Original article published on Money.it Italy 2023-07-13 14:14:54. Original title: Trump contro Biden, chi vincerà le elezioni Usa 2024? Il verdetto dei sondaggi
