Polymarket is one of the most widely used decentralized prediction market platforms in the world. Here’s what it is, how it works, and how to use it in practice.
Polymarket is a prediction market platform that has been making headlines for its recent news. Some traders have earned over $1 million betting on the timing of the US-Iran attacks, others have profited on the US presidential elections, and some are even betting on Elon Musk’s tweets on X.
But what exactly is it? And why is it so controversial? Unlike traditional betting sites, in this case there is no single betting house. Users exchange odds among themselves, which represent the probability of an event occurring.
In this guide, we explain in detail what Polymarket is, how it works, and how to use it. Although it is subject to numerous restrictions in Italy, it remains the platform that is generating the most buzz in the rest of the world.
What is Polymarket
Polymarket is currently considered the leading blockchain-based prediction market platform. Founded in 2020 by Shayne Coplan in the midst of the Covid-19 pandemic, it was initially called Union Marketplace and aimed to combat misinformation. How? By creating financial incentives for accurate predictions.
It first gained visibility during the 2020 US presidential election, when the Trump victory market generated over $10 million in revenue. Over the years, the platform moved to Polygon to reduce transaction costs.
In 2022, the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission fined the company $1.4 million. The reason? Operating without a license. The big explosion occurred during the 2024 US elections, with billions of dollars traded and the involvement of investors like Vitalik Buterin, the founder of Ethereum.
In October 2025, thanks to a $2 billion investment from Intercontinental Exchange, which owns the New York Stock Exchange, Polymarket reached a valuation of $9 billion.
How Polymarket Works
Today, Polymarket operates within a news-driven stock market. It is based on several technical pillars, which are essential for the system to hold up.
First and foremost, every bet is placed in USD Coin, a cryptocurrency pegged to the dollar to ensure value stability. Prices are never set by the platform, but by user supply and demand.
To determine the winner, the Polymarket system uses so-called oracles. These are responsible for confirming the outcome of the event on the blockchain, completely impartially.
Finally, there are social network integrations. Recently, X has enabled users to view real-time odds and probabilities while reading the news.
How to use Polymarket
To use Polymarket, the approach required is different than traditional betting sites.
In the following chapters, we’ll explain in detail everything you need to start betting on real-world events you think might occur and how to withdraw any profits.
Account Creation
First, you need to create a profile. Go to polymarket.com and then click Sign Up in the top right. You can choose between Google, email, or a custodial digital wallet like Phantom or MetaMask.
There is also an official app available on the Play Store for Android, while the iOS service is currently not available in Italy. Since it is often affected by regional restrictions, many users access via VPN to bypass restrictions.
Betting
To bet, you don’t have to stake but buy odds from other users. As mentioned, only USDC, stablecoins pegged to the dollar, are used. After choosing a category (e.g., sports or politics), click on the event and choose Yes or No.
At this point, enter the dollar amount you want to invest and the system will show you the odds and profit. By pressing Buy, you confirm your bet, and if your prediction is correct, each odds will be worth $1 at the close of the event.
Costs
Polymarket is a free platform, but some trading fees apply. Starting in March 2026, fees apply to cryptocurrencies and some sports markets, with a maximum of 1.56% when the probability is 50% or higher.
However, most markets (such as politics and current affairs) remain commission-free.
To withdraw or deposit funds, you must pay small fractions of Polygon to cover the costs of the blockchain network.
Deposits and Withdrawals
Before you can start betting on Polymarket, you must deposit funds. You can send USDC directly from your wallet or through an exchange like Binance or Coinbase.
Alternatively, Polymarket also allows you to purchase funds directly from credit cards or PayPal through integrated partners (e.g., Moonpay).
If you’ve won money from a bet and want to withdraw, simply go to the Portfolio section and then click Withdraw. Then, select your preferred method and wait for your prize to be collected. Third-party partners may apply fees.
What happened on Polymarket in 2026
The recent US-Iran conflict led Polymarket to record a notional trading volume of $478 million on the day the war broke out alone.
Contracts tied to the timing of the attacks in particular set records, with single trades capable of reaching up to $90 million.
This significant momentum, however, has been at the center of accusations of insider trading by Bubblemaps, which identified six addresses capable of earning $1.2 million from bets related to events in Iran.
Given the controversy, Polymarket did not pay out bets based on direct death outcomes, refunding traders’ commissions and liquidating positions at the last trade price.
This is not the first time such cases have put Polymarket in the spotlight. As recently as January 2026, a user had bet on the capture of Nicolás Maduro in Venezuela, winning $400,000 in total.
It’s no surprise, then, that any uncertainty about what’s happening in the world is quickly transformed into a bet on Polymarket. And given the evolving conflict and the potential new geopolitical developments that will affect the coming months, the company is expected to generate revenues exceeding a billion dollars.
Original article published on Money.it Italy. Original title: Cos’è Polymarket, come funziona e come usare la piattaforma
