In the US presidential election, caucuses serve a very important role. As Iowa opens the 2024 race, let’s analyze what a caucus is.
What is a caucus and what is its difference with a primary election? On Monday, January 15th, Iowa will be the first US state to vote for a presidential candidate, marking the beginning of the most important election in 2024.
Republicans will be under the spotlight in the Iowa caucus, as they will elect the future presidential candidates. The Democratic primary in Iowa will instead take place on March 5th, and voters will vote by mail.
Historically, Iowa has always been the first state to open national elections. According to state rules (which change for every state), the Republican elections take place with a caucus, which is a different system from a primary.
In this article, we’ll explore what a caucus is and its difference from a primary election. We will also analyze why the Iowa caucus is so important for both parties.
How does the US election work?
The United States national elections are the most followed political event of the year. They will decide who is going to run the richest and most powerful country in history for the following four years.
The electoral process in the United States is long and complex. Eventually, however, it comes down to a nationwide election between two main candidates, who represent the two major US parties: the Republican and Democratic parties. There can be third-party candidates, but never in the recent history of the United States has one independent candidate gathered enough votes to seriously challenge the major parties.
These elections take place in November. Voters do not vote for a candidate directly. The President is selected by a committee of “Grand Electors”, selected according to a state’s population. Larger states like California or Texas have more “Grand Electors” than smaller states like Rhode Island or Hawaii.
The Grand Electors gather after the November election and vote for the President according to the winning candidate in their state. The Electoral College consists of 538 grand electors, and 270 are needed for a candidate to win.
What are the primaries?
Before getting to the nationwide presidential election, however, voters are called to choose the Republican and Democratic candidates that will face off in November.
This selection process takes place either with a primary or a caucus vote.
Usually, if the incumbent President announces his candidacy, he will most likely become the candidate of his party. In this case, Joe Biden is the absolute favorite candidate for the Democratic Party.
Following the Democratic primaries is therefore not so interesting for political observers. On the other hand, they will watch closely how the Republican primaries will take shape.
A “primary” vote is just that: a ballot where voters select their choice of candidate. A primary, like any traditional election, takes place throughout the day and votes are counted afterward.
Each state and party has a slightly different system of primary voting. For example, parties allow only voters registered as party members to vote in some states. In other cases, anyone registered as a voter can vote for the party primary.
In any case, primaries are generally regarded as a straightforward system of voting.
What is a caucus?
Completely differing from primary voting, a caucus is a direct system of choosing a party candidate that involves direct political debate with the state’s population.
During a caucus, party candidates step up on stage and explain their political agenda to a crowd. What happens next varies according to the party and the state. Generally, however, there are two electoral systems in a caucus:
- Voters cast a secret ballot. Votes are then proportionally distributed to party delegates who will vote for a candidate in a later assembly.
- Voters are physically divided between the candidates of their choice. In the conference room, voters take sides according to their candidate, with a pool of “undecided” in the middle. Then, voters and candidates can go around trying to convince undecided to join them, or other voters to switch candidates. In this case, the vote is not secret and involves a higher degree of political involvement.
Caucuses are a very peculiar system of voting, dating back to the foundation of the United States. They are a crucial step in the electoral campaign of presidential candidates, as they need to showcase their skills in handling the public directly.
Many candidates have thrown away their campaigns because they could not fit well with the public during caucuses. On the other hand, underdog candidates like Barack Obama managed to swing an election around because of their strong public appearances and interpersonal skills.
Why is Iowa so important?
Historically, Iowa is the first state to hold elections during an election year. Its January and March caucuses are crucial for both parties to assess their electoral campaign.
Iowa is a small state in the middle of the nation. Its closest large urban center is Chicago, Illinois on the east.
With a population of a bit over 3 million people, Iowa is not very relevant in the Electoral College. Iowa can only cast 6 out of 538 votes in the November elections.
This would make Iowa unappealing for large electoral campaigns. However, because of the importance of its caucus, Iowa is always at the center of attention during election years.
On Monday, January 15th, the Republican caucus in Iowa will decide the Republican candidate for this state. The Republican caucus follows the private ballot rules, meaning that candidates will step up on stage for a speech, and then electors will cast their votes privately. In the following months, delegates will meet to vote for the Republican candidate following the result of this caucus.
Therefore, it can be safely said that by Tuesday evening we will know the Republican candidate for Iowa.
The Democratic Iowa caucus usually follows the open vote system. This year, however, the party opted for an in-mail vote for March.
How will the Republican Iowa caucus go?
According to the latest polls, the Republican caucus in Iowa should safely go to Donald Trump. He is considered the main Republican candidate for the upcoming election, safely ahead in polls from other candidates.
Donald Trump enjoys a safe lead with 48% of the votes, albeit down from 51% in December. Second in line is Nikky Haley at 20%, then Ronald DeSantis at 16%, Vivek Ramaswamy at 8%, Asa Hutchinson at 1%, and Ryan Binkley at 1%.
Ron DeSantis was generally considered the main opponent of Donald Trump in the primaries, though he constantly lags behind in polls.
However, the unpredictable nature of the Iowa caucus might cause some surprises, especially because of the ice-cold weather forecast for Monday. Exit polls will reveal the first results, which should be released by Tuesday evening.
