What are the prospects for the price of Bitcoin? Will the king of cryptocurrencies be able to get back above $30,000?
Cryptocurrency market sentiment is still mixed after the weekend as investors are unsure whether the recent Bitcoin weakness will last much longer.
Historically, sustained periods of less volatility prices in the crypto market have preceded significant price reactions: a rally or a sizeable decline.
Bitcoin Latest News
The options market estimates that the price of BTC won’t be below $30,000 for too long: very few traders are currently selling $30,000 call options. For now, traders see the situation as a rather short-term deviation. This could be in favor of the bulls as BTC maintains a rather stable uptrend structure in the broader range. A significant number of speculative positions are located at the $31,000 level, which could provide significant resistance on a bounce.
BTC price is close to $28,500 which is the average buy price of short-term investors (STH - Short-Term Holders) - historically this on-chain level has proven to be strong support during the rebound phase - the price has seldom fallen below the STH group’s ’break even’ level.
Analyst platform CryptoSlate pointed out that July 28 recorded the largest daily volume of positive BTC flows to exchanges in three months (roughly 10,000 BTC), which could indicate short-term downward pressure.
Analysts at cryptocurrency fund BitBull Capital point to a significant bullish factor in the form of Bitcoin’s immunization to the macro situation, Fed decisions, or stock market sentiment that could over time make it an uncorrelated asset, hedging institutional portfolios.
On Aug. 13, heightened volatility could lead to a decision by regulators on applications for Bitcoin ETFs from ArkInvest and 21Shares. The lack of approval is likely to encourage a short-term sell-off. Longer-term, Bitcoin faces at least two significant volatility catalysts as the first quarter of 2024 begins: the SEC decision on BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETFs and the halving. Both could ’amortize’ any reductions.
How to invest in cryptocurrency with CFDs
Investing in contracts for difference (CFD) on cryptocurrencies has become an attractive option for those who wish to participate in the cryptocurrency market without actually owning it. CFDs offer investors the opportunity to speculate on cryptocurrency price fluctuations without having to manage complex digital wallets or worry about the security of virtual coins. This allows investors to take advantage of cryptocurrency market volatility, which can be significant. Additionally, CFDs offer the ability to trade with leverage, allowing investors to gain more exposure to cryptocurrencies than their invested funds.
Investing in CFDs on cryptocurrencies involves significant risks. The cryptocurrency market is known for its high volatility, which can cause sudden and unpredictable price movements. The use of leverage can magnify both profits and losses, making it crucial to have a sound risk management strategy and employ control measures, such as using stop losses.
Will there be bullish momentum in BTC ETFs in August?
Although the SEC does not recognize Bitcoin as securities, the approval of applications from ArkInvest and 21Shares on August 13 could lead to the so-called ’oversight sharing agreement’. Both funds pointed to Coinbase, a cryptocurrency exchange that has outstanding regulatory issues and a legal dispute with the SEC. Furthermore, a positive decision would give both companies priority over BlackRock enforcement, which many industry analysts consider unlikely. BlackRock also has an oversight agreement with Coinbase, but both the fund and the exchange have until 2024 to comply with regulatory requirements.
In the long term, the price maintains a bullish trendline. The rather uniform ’geometry’ of the bullish structure should be noted, also on the MACD (orange rectangles). This would indicate that we are potentially approaching another move higher, just before a phase of dynamic short-term declines. The key levels appear to be the $28,000 levels which are roughly in line with the STH investor-focused BTC average (around $28,500) and the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement of the December 2022 upsurge.
On the H1 chart, Bitcoin is struggling to stay above the SMA100 (black line) and SMA200 (red line). A decline below both of these averages could herald wider downward pressure. The RSI near 50 points shows a neutral level at which big reactions could occur.
There is a very close connection between the price and its levels. Historically, cycle lows have occurred when the price has fallen below the realized price (the average purchase price of BTC by all on-chain investors). Each of the previous BTC price increases was supported by the STH price during the rebound.
Although a considerable amount of BTC suddenly flowed into trading in late July, BTC trading levels are still close to 2018 levels. The small amount of BTC trading is associated with a so-called lower market depth and thus promotes dynamic reactions of prices during peaks in volatility.
Original article published on Money.it Italy 2023-08-02 12:10:49. Original title: La volatilità del Bitcoin porterà il prezzo sopra i $30.000?
