The Italian Association of Epidemiology raises the alarm for the increase in infections: in two weeks, as many as five Regions could exceed the threshold of 250 weekly cases per 100 thousand inhabitants.
Five Regions could exceed the critical threshold of 250 weekly infections per 100 thousand inhabitants within two weeks. The forecast is contained in a position paper of the Made working group of the Italian Association of Epidemiology. The estimates were published together with a document containing five recommendations for managing the current pandemic phase.
Epidemiologists start from the diagnostic replication index (RDt) which at national level on 13 November stood at 1.42 and is higher than one in all Regions. The acceleration in the spread of infections would lead, according to the AIE, to exceed the threshold of 250 cases per week per 100 thousand inhabitants in five Regions within 14 days.
In addition, eight other regions would exceed the threshold of 150 cases. We recall that until a few months ago - when the hospitalization criterion was not yet in force - once the value of 250 for the incidence was exceeded, the red zone, or a mini-lockdown, was triggered automatically.
The forecasts on the incidence of infections Region by Region
The daily report of the IEA updated to November 14 claims that in 14 days the incidence would reach 173.9 cases per 100 thousand inhabitants in Italy if the conditions were to remain unchanged and the increase in infections continue. In particular, five Regions would exceed the critical threshold of 250 weekly infections: Bolzano 1267.9, Friuli-Venezia Giulia 824.7, Valle d’Aosta 624.1, Liguria 311.5 and Veneto 261.4.
Here is the Region by Region estimates of the report on the incidence in two weeks:
- * Abruzzo 164
- * Basilicata 49
- * Calabria 78
- * Campania 148
- * Emilia-Romagna 184
- * Friuli-Venezia Giulia 824
- * Lazio 206
- * Liguria 311
- * Lombardy 165
- * Brands 233
- * Molise 187
- * Bolzano 1267
- * Trento 105
- * Piedmont 134
- * Puglia 63
- * Sardinia 73
- * Sicily 129
- * Tuscany 104
- * Umbria 69
- * Aosta Valley 624
- * Veneto 261
Moreover, already in a week the same Regions would record, again under unchanged conditions, alarming incidence data: Bolzano at 703, Friuli-Venezia Giulia at 474, Valle d’Aosta at 237, Veneto at 184 and Liguria at 165 .
The contagion curve in Italy
The analysis also highlights the age groups in which the incidence is higher: growth is on the rise especially in the under 12, still not vaccinated, although now in all age groups. age there is an increase in new cases. In any case - it is again underlined in the recommendations - vaccination and protective measures have "made it possible to contain the pandemic at one of the lowest incidence levels in Europe, but the data show a rapidly evolving situation negative".
The recommendations of epidemiologists
To contain the fourth wave, epidemiologists therefore provide five recommendations:
- # Start with the active call of unvaccinated people;
- # Accelerate with the administration of the third dose;
- # Protect children and adolescents with more prevention measures in schools;
- # Strengthen the activity of identification of infections and tracing;
- # Maintain rules such as spacing, indoor and outdoor masks in case of gatherings.
Seasonal flu alarm
The Italian Association of Epidemiology also raises another alarm concerning seasonal flu. The relaxation of the measures in force compared to last year - it is emphasized - is leading to "an increase in the incidence of flu syndromes, particularly in the 0-4 age group, which certainly complicates and aggravates the diagnostic and case management ".
