SpaceX is preparing a record-breaking IPO with a $1.5 trillion valuation, and Elon Musk could become history’s first trillionaire. Here’s what’s really at stake.
It’s a figure that’s making Wall Street shudder: $1.5 trillion. This is the valuation that SpaceX is poised to reach in the public markets in 2026, according to rumors circulating among investment banks and institutional investors. Double the valuation estimated just a few months ago, and enough to push Elon Musk toward the milestone of becoming the first “trillionaire” in modern history—while reigniting an IPO market that, due to high interest rates and narrow listing windows, has cooled more than expected.
And it’s not often that we witness such an acceleration. It’s not often that a private company doubles its implied valuation within a year. It’s not often that someone openly aims to surpass the record set by Saudi Aramco, which raised $29 billion in 2019 by floating just 1.5% of its shares. And it’s not often, especially, that you come across a company discussing orbital data centers while simultaneously accelerating development on a rocket designed to take humans to Mars. Yet this is exactly the direction in which SpaceX is moving.
What does all this mean for investors? And what could really happen if SpaceX chooses the 2026 window for its IPO expected to exceed $30 billion?
To understand whether it’s worth being prepared, we need to start here.
SpaceX heading for a record-breaking IPO: what’s behind the $1.5 trillion valuation
The deal Musk is preparing is unlike anything the market has ever seen. SpaceX currently generates estimated revenues of around $15 billion, which could grow to $24 billion in 2026, with the bulk coming from Starlink. The satellite internet business is adding users at a pace reminiscent of the early rollout of fiber networks and is preparing to enter the direct-to-mobile segment—the real hidden driver behind future revenue projections. Added to this is Starship, the lunar and Mars program, representing the boldest bet but also the one that could secure undisputed technological leadership.
In recent months, SpaceX has revised its valuation upward, bringing the internal share price to around $420, while employees have been granted the option to sell up to $2 billion worth of stock. This move confirms the company’s intention to streamline its cap table ahead of a potential public listing. If Musk’s plan materializes, the sale of a 5% stake would be enough to break Aramco’s record, resulting in an IPO that could raise between $30 and $40 billion.
The implications extend far beyond SpaceX. According to Will Whitehorn, former president of Virgin Galactic and now head of Seraphim Space, such a listing would have a “seismic effect” across the entire industry. Supplier ecosystems would be reshaped, and institutional investors might reconsider the strategic weight of the aerospace sector within global asset allocations. In a world where technological supremacy is once again central to geopolitical agendas, Musk’s move would resemble a strategic statement more than a traditional stock market debut.
Is it worth buying the SpaceX IPO: opportunities, risks, and what investors should expect
Reaching the listing date with a $1.5 trillion valuation could create a paradox.
SpaceX would be one of the most promising companies in the world—but also one of the most expensive to buy.
Current pricing assumes near-flawless execution, supported by strong operating margins, a quasi-monopoly in commercial launch services, and a satellite business that could become the backbone of future global connectivity. Investors participating in the IPO aren’t buying the present; they’re buying a future in which digital infrastructure is built from orbit and Starship enables new extraterrestrial markets.
The main risk concerns the macro backdrop. The artificial intelligence boom has inflated multiples and expectations, while analysts have been warning for months about a potential correction in the tech sector. In the event of market turbulence, Musk would likely delay the listing—no one brings a company of this scale public in an environment of uncertainty. Conversely, in a scenario of lower interest rates and steady U.S. growth, the IPO could attract unprecedented global inflows.
The final question remains the most important: Is it worth buying SpaceX at its debut?
It depends on the type of investor. Those seeking short-term gains may find the stock highly volatile, reacting sharply to updates on Starship milestones, government contracts, or Starlink’s subscriber growth. Long-term investors, however, may view SpaceX not as a cyclical tech company but as a foundational infrastructure provider of the future. Nothing is guaranteed, but one belief is widely shared across the market: if the economy of 2030 truly becomes orbital and interlinked, SpaceX will be one of its cornerstones.
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The information and considerations contained in this article should not be used as the sole or primary basis for making investment decisions. Readers retain full freedom in their investment decisions and full responsibility for making them, as they alone know their risk appetite and time horizon. The information contained in the article is provided for informational purposes only, and its disclosure does not constitute and should not be considered an offer or solicitation to the public to save.|
Original article published on Money.it Italy 2025-12-11 11:10:30. Original title: IPO SpaceX, conviene comprare? La società spaziale di Elon Musk sempre più vicina alla quotazione in borsa
