Prime Minister of Poland posted on X that by 2029, Poles will be richer than the British. The occasion for the tweet was Poland celebrating 20 years of it being in the European Union. Could he be right?
GDP per capita
The World Bank Group, in a report in April 2024, claimed that Poland’s per capita GDP was approaching that of the UK. If current growth rates were maintained, on a per-capita basis, Poland would surpass the UK in 2025. Furthermore, according to Tusk, by 2029, Poles would be wealthier than Brits. Tusk uses this to point out that it is better to be in the EU.
Labour Party leader Sir Keir Starmer stated that this is unacceptable. "The British people are falling behind while our European neighbours get richer, in the east as well as in countries like France and Germany. I’m not comfortable with that; not comfortable with a trajectory that will soon see Britain overtaken by Poland.”
20 years of growth by the numbers
Polish state-run TV broadcaster points to World Bank data showing that Poland’s GDP doubled between 2004 and 2022, and in per capita terms it leapt from 6,681 dollars in 2004 to 18,688 dollars in 2022. The country’s GDP was increasing at 3.6% per annum from 2010 through 2021, compared to 0.5% growth for the UK.
TVP also notes a set of indicators that show the broad scale of Poland’s growth. Roadways, for example, make Poland more accessible for individuals and businesses than it was previously. In 2004, Poland had just over 610 km of expressways. In 2024, there are now 4,620 kilometers of expressways, comprised of more than 1,750 km of motorways and about 2,870 km of express roads.
Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) is another indicator of Poland’s rise over the past 20 years. FDI inflows more than tripled over the period: from 9.98 billion euro in 2004 to more than 31.2 billion euros in 2022. FDI accounted for 4.6% of GDP in 2022.
EU membership has played a major role in this economic expansion. EU funding to the Polish budget totaled 232 billion euros between 2004 and 2022. Poland has also contributed. Membership payments totaled over 77 billion euros in this period. Poland’s Economic Institute recently calculated that Poland’s GDP per capita at purchasing power parity (PPP) is 40% greater than in if the country had not joined the EU.
