China started the two-in-a-decade Congress of the Communist Party. It is almost sure that Xi Jinping will remain in power for a third term, making him the most powerful Chinese leader since Mao Zedong.
There is no country in the world more mysterious to Western eyes than China. While the rest of the planet is concerned with the escalation and evolution of the war in Ukraine, many fear that China would jump the gun and invade Taiwan.
After all, this is perfectly sensible in Western mentality. While everyone is distracted, China could settle its most important foreign policy dossier and close the Taiwan problem once and for all. Many analysts concur that conquering Taiwan is the key for Beijing to finally challenge the United States as the World’s superpower. With Taiwan, China can look outwards into the Pacific Ocean, momentarily an American inland sea considering all of Washington’s allies in the region.
And that was, according to many, the final objective of decades long economic growth. Now, China is the World’s second economy, and its ambiguous friendship with Russia makes every military analyst in the West shiver.
And yet, Xi Jinping’s speech at the Communist Party Congress registers a different tone. Xi Jinping has been the undiscussed leader of China since 2012, but the norm would see him step down from his post now, after ten years and two terms in power. But many think that, with this Congress, he will retain the Presidency of China and Chairmanship of the Communist Party for a third term. This would make him the most powerful Chinese leader since Mao Zedong.
Xi Jinping’s speech: less growth and more nationalism
So, this historical Congress will ensure Xi Jinping at least five more years of power. He will likely reshuffle his cabinet, changing the 7 Standing Members of the Politburo (basically China’s executive organ) with younger ones. His 2-hours long opening speech will define China’s policy making for the following 5 years. And it is not what many Westerners would have expected.
First of all, his speech confirmed the on-going “zero covid policy”. China is the only major economy that keeps fighting the Covid pandemic with strict restrictions, like full lockdowns in major cities. According to many analysts, this policy has tampered China’s growth. Despite being the only major economy to inflate its GDP in 2020, the zero covid policy is slugging Beijing’s economy.
With increasing unemployment and a shaky housing market, China seems constantly on the edge of recession. Something that, in fairness, shares with many other countries at the moment. But China’s motives are unique: its insistence in Covid restrictions. To contrast this, Xi Jinping also confirmed the definitive abandonment of the free market. The central government must ensure "social fairness" to decrease inequality, Xi said.
China will enforce more and more controls over its businesses, assuring they follow the party line and carefully balancing growth with recession risk. Xi called this "high-quality growth", different from the fast accumulation of capital we are so used to in the West.
So, China decided to slow down its economy and focus inward. Capitalism with Chinese characteristics just took another meaning completely. Many wonder if China still considers an invasion of Taiwan possible. Every nation, when reaching a certain amount of power, has two choices: focus inward for the citizen’s benefits or focus outwards for the nation’s power.
This Congress might define once and for all which path China decides to take.
