Xi and Biden have strengthened their respective images in opposing political contexts. Little or nothing has been done to smooth the geopolitical rivalry between the US and China.
He returned home with a Golden State Warriors NBA team t-shirt, which he received from California Governor Gavin Newsom. He received applause and standing ovations from the US business elite, reassured that they could continue to invest in China. In the face-to-face meeting with Joe Biden, he finally extended his hand to the US president by agreeing to reactivate military communications between the parties, so as to limit the risks of a sudden causus belli. Xi Jinping’s trip to the United States ended with smiles and handshakes, small diplomatic successes but no concrete turning point, as expected the day before.
After all, American expectations were reduced to a minimum, while the Chinese counterpart never said anything about what objectives and goals to achieve. In some ways, we can say that Xi’s trip overseas served to restore impetus to the Chinese leader’s image, clouded by a still stuttering internal economy and non-negligible pressures. Take, for example - and this is not by chance one of the unresolved issues of the summit with Biden - the Taiwan dossier: neither China nor the United States intends to take a step back on the fate of the island.
The prospects of Xi and Biden
The prospects of the United States and China are well represented by the post-summit. At the end of the face-to-face meeting with the Chinese leader, Biden presented himself at the press conference, speaking of a "constructive, productive and frank" meeting. Instead, Xi attended a dinner with top US CEOs, nervous about how to run their businesses in China.
The symbolism is quite clear. One year before the 2024 US election, with a disappointing approval rating and the threat of a downgrade by Moody’s Investors Services, global investors believe that Biden has little left to offer to US-China dynamics.
Xi, who instead does not have to answer to the voters, but to a political agenda articulated in symbiosis with the Chinese Communist Party, has seen fit to reassure the elite of the US economic-financial system. The same one that has allowed Beijing to continue to develop in exchange for the possibility of carving out shares of the action in an immense market. In other words, the meeting served the two presidents to strengthen their respective political positions in diametrically opposed contexts. Little or nothing has been done to smooth out the geopolitical rivalry.
China’s following steps
The diplomatic relations between the United States and China thus continue to be troubled, so much so that the relations between the two countries can be defined by a very specific concept: that of "lasting rivalry, a term used by scientists politicians to connote two powers that have distinguished themselves through intense competition in security matters.
In short, Washington and Beijing understand each other too well and have come to the conclusion that their own worldviews cannot be reconciled. The same goes for many of the foreign policy issues, which can be framed in zero-sum scenarios. Put another way, Taiwan can be governed by Taipei or Beijing, but not both, just as the East and South China Seas can be international waters or Chinese territory.
Based on this, it is reasonable to assume that the Biden administration can continue its aim to contain Beijing’s expansion in the Indo-Pacific, activating a diplomatic network with as many Asian partners as possible (from South to Japan via the Philippines). On the other hand, Xi will try to give oxygen to the Chinese economy, favoring targeted foreign investments that are useful for the cause of the country’s development. At the same time, it is likely that the Dragon will keep its guard high on Taiwan while being careful not to alter the status quo. The Asian giant knows well that it is not yet time to risk a conflict with the USA.
Those of Biden and Xi are therefore two different expectations. The only difference is that the first is destined to die out in the short to medium term (much will depend on the outcome of the next US elections), while the second will be able to contribute, barring miscalculations, to laying the foundations for the next Chinese actions on the global market.
Original article published on Money.it Italy 2023-11-20 06:37:00. Original title: Le prossime mosse della Cina: cosa farà Xi dopo l’incontro con Biden
