US Secretary of State is worried that China will invade Taiwan very soon. The US have already said they would support Taiwan, but how close are we to actual war?
An historic event is currently taking place in Beijing. The two-in-a-decade Congress of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) started, and will last for the entire week. It opened on Sunday with Chairman and Chinese President Xi Jinping’s two hours long speech. He basically confirmed to analysts that he will be nominated for a third consecutive term, making him the most important Chinese leader since Mao Zedong.
Western powers, especially the United States, are following the Congress nervously. They keep their ears open for every mention of Taiwan, China’s main foreign policy agenda. What they have concluded, at least some of them, is that China will invade Taiwan very soon.
US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken said that unification with Taiwan is being pursued “on a much faster timeline” now that Xi Jinping will be President again. Under his rule, China became the World’s second biggest economy, but has also re-opened the Taiwan dossier.
This has been closed since 1949, when a “second China” was born on the island of Taiwan following the Chinese civil war. Mao Zedong had won on the mainland, and China’s Nationalists had to flee on Taiwan. Since then, they have lived in a state of independence, getting closer and closer to Western values.
Now that China is rich and powerful, many fear that they want to deal with Taiwan once and for all. And this means invasion. Or does it?
Will China actually invade Taiwan
Xi Jinping said in Sunday’s speech that “[China] will continue to strive for peaceful reunification with the greatest sincerity and the utmost effort, but we will never promise to renounce the use of force.”. Many saw this as a threat against Taiwan and a possible sign for imminent invasion. Indeed, in recent years China has increased military exercises within Taiwan’s air and maritime space.
But experts rushed in to calm down spirits. “I really don’t think that the Chinese are very eager to start something to reunify Taiwan by force … because if you start that you must win.” These are the words of Bilahari Kausikan, former permanent secretary at Singapore’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
Others pointed out that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine showed to Xi Jinping that an attack is not a viable option. In this case in particular, the United States have already pledged allegiance to Taiwan, saying they would intervene in case of invasion.
A military invasion of Taiwan would bring Beijing to nowhere. Taiwan, unlike Ukraine, already has a modern army, and they are an island: there is no land bridge between the two nations. An invasion force could easily be spotted by Taiwan, which would take measures much before any landing can possibly happen. And they would be backed by the strongest military on the planet.
With that speech, Xi Jinping wanted to express that Taiwan is an internal issue in China. In Beijing’s view, interference of external forces cannot be tolerated. But, let’s be honest, what can they really do about it?
