The county of Changshan will issue cash rewards for young marriages and childbearing. This, however, will hardly solve China’s massive demographic crisis.
China wishes to give a boost to its demographic crisis as it battles with a lower fertility rate and fewer marriages. Changshan, a county in Eastern China, announced a cash reward for new marriages whose bride is younger than 25 years old.
The announcement came on the county’s WeChat account, trying to promote “age-appropriate marriage and childbearing”. The reward for newlywed couples will be 1,000 yuan, roughly 137 dollars.
Changshan County also announced a series of measures of childcare, fertility, and education subsidies. China’s legal age for marriage is 22 years old for men and 20 years old for women.
China is trying to reverse the awful effects of the One Child Policy, the infamous law enacted in 1980 and lifted only in 2015. The policy was implemented to fight the country’s overpopulation, forcing families to have a maximum of one child or face significant fees.
The result of the One Child Policy was the opposite of what it tried to achieve. Modern-day China now suffers from the same demographic crisis as many European and East Asian countries.
In 2022, China experienced the first population decline since Maoist times and is expected to fall below India as the world’s most populous country by the end of 2023.
China’s fertility rate is the 4th lowest in the world at 1.2, far lower than the 2.1 replacement level. Similarly, marriages are at an all-time low, with only 6.8 million new marriages in 2022, 800,000 fewer than the previous year.
Demography and geopolitics
Although China is not the only major economy to experience a demographic decline, it has much more at stake than other nations with a similar problem.
China is trying to assert its hegemony over the Eurasian continent. This fact has been clear for at least a decade, as well as its rivalry with the United States.
The lynchpin of such hegemony is the invasion and conquest of Taiwan. In response, the United States pledged absolute allegiance to the protection of the island. Therefore, any military confrontation happening in Taiwan would be between China and the United States directly.
The demographic issue, however, gives China little time to act. By 2050, estimates put China’s median age between 48 and 50 years old, making it the oldest country in the world with Japan and South Korea. By comparison, by 2050 the US median age will be 41-43 years old.
A country with an old population cannot become a hegemon through war. It is simply a statistical impossibility. China will either have to solve the issue (for example, encouraging immigration to the country) or give up its hegemonic dreams.
