Multiple factors are driving the surge in prices, from geopolitical crises—wars, conflicts, and protectionist policies disrupting supply chains—to the growing impact of climate change, including droughts and extreme weather.
In recent months, we have witnessed a sustained increase in the cost of agricultural products across much of the world.
The underlying causes are multifaceted, stemming from both geopolitical crises—including wars, conflicts, and protectionist policies that disrupt supply chains and destabilize entire economies—and the effects of climate change, such as droughts and rising global temperatures.
Which products are most affected? The list is extensive, but topping the chart are coffee, cocoa, and corn. The consequences? Quite simple: consumers will inevitably face higher prices, to varying degrees, when purchasing goods linked to these commodities.
The Coffee Price Surge
Take coffee, for instance: prices have skyrocketed to $4.40 per pound, up from $3.35 per pound in December. According to Reuters, traders and roasters worldwide have scaled back their purchases as the industry grapples with an unprecedented price surge. At the recent National Coffee Association annual convention in Houston, attendees expressed shock over the 70% increase in Arabica coffee futures on the ICE exchange since November—an alarming trend for the global coffee market.
What’s driving this surge? One key factor is the decline in production in major coffee-producing regions, particularly Brazil, the world’s largest supplier. Unpredictable frosts and prolonged drought conditions have significantly impacted bean availability, tightening supply amid strong global demand—leading to a major market imbalance.
The impact has been especially pronounced for premium Arabica beans, the preferred choice of leading coffee chains. Some analysts predict a 30% price correction by year-end, assuming current price levels temper demand and Brazil delivers a robust harvest. However, until a meaningful drop materializes, the industry faces considerable turbulence.
Other Industries Under Pressure
The situation is no better for the chocolate industry. In December 2024, cocoa prices reached an all-time high, surpassing $12,000 per metric ton—a staggering leap from $2,000 in 2022. This spike is placing immense cost pressures on chocolate manufacturers, many of whom have no choice but to pass on the increases to consumers.
What’s behind this crisis? West Africa, which produces nearly 70% of the world’s cocoa, has endured severe weather patterns in recent years. Excessive rainfall and extreme heat have led to poor crop yields. Furthermore, production in key regions—especially Ivory Coast and Ghana—has been hampered by the spread of Cacao Swollen Shoot Virus (CSSV), a disease that drastically reduces the lifespan of cocoa trees. As a result, cocoa prices have soared, leaving consumers to shoulder higher costs. In some markets, chocolate prices have already jumped 20–40%.
The corn market has also experienced significant price pressure, with prices hovering around €245 per metric ton, driven by tight supply forecasts, lower-than-expected U.S. production estimates, and rising global consumption.
Looking ahead, 2025 promises to be a challenging year for consumers as inflationary pressures ripple through food markets.
Original article published on Money.it Italy 2025-03-23 06:55:00. Original title: Dal caffé al cacao, i prezzi schizzano alle stelle: ecco che cosa sta succedendo
