How much oil does Iran have and why would an Israeli attack on its fields or refineries be a danger to the world?
How much oil does Iran produce? The question is all the more pertinent in the context of the war in the Middle East, which seriously risks spreading into the oil-rich region after the launch of 180 Iranian missiles in Israel.
The Islamic Republic plays a strategic role in the area. A member of OPEC, Iran is estimated to supply up to 4% of the world’s crude oil thanks to its deposits and refining capacity. For this reason, all eyes have turned on Israeli revenge: Tel Aviv has promised to act to punish the enemy and could indeed strike the oil plants - a source of wealth for the Persian nation - with the aim of impoverishing the Iranian regime. Among the consequences of such an operation, however, there would also be a jump in the price of crude oil due to a supply that would become scarcer.
According to analysts, an IDF attack on Iran’s export capacity could slash 1.5 million barrels of crude oil per day from the global market overnight. A small attack on energy infrastructure, such as downstream assets, could remove 300,000 to 450,000 barrels of production per day.
But How much oil does Iran have?
How big is Iran in crude oil production?
In a note, oil analysts at S&P Global noted that escalating the Middle East conflict into a large-scale military operation could have repercussions on energy resources upstream (for example, attacks on Iranian production sites) or in the middle (attacks on Iranian oil and fuel loading ports or Houthi retaliatory attacks in the Red Sea or Gulf of Aden), causing prices to rise.
In a detailed map based on OPEC and IEA data, S&P Commodities Insight clarified Iran’s oil power, marking oil fields in orange and refining plants in blue, with strategic export ports also highlighted:
- Iranian oil: a map
- Deposits and refining centers
According to OPEC data for 2023, the country’s proven crude oil reserves amount to 208.6 billion barrels. Production for the year was over 4 million barrels per day according to Statista calculations.
Iran has one of the largest refining sectors in the Middle East with approximately 2.4 million barrels per day of capacity in 2023 spread across 10 major sites. Its three largest refineries are the 370,000-bpd Isfahan plant, the 360,000-bpd Abadan refinery, and the 320,000-bpd Bandar Abbas site.
The state-owned National Iranian Oil Refining and Distribution Company, or NIORDC, has ultimate control over the transportation, storage, marketing, and distribution of petroleum products in Iran.
According to the report, although seven Iranian refineries have been partially privatized since 2010, NIORDC continues to operate and hold shares in all of the refineries, exercising a high degree of control over the energy complex.
Large amounts of shares in Iran’s refining operations are believed to be held by groups with ties to Iran’s Revolutionary Guards and former President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.
If you want to really strike at the symbol of Iran’s prestige and strength, the oil pipeline network is a prime target. But attention is at an all-time high. The US is unlikely to countenance Israeli moves to raise world oil prices.
Original article published on Money.it Italy 2024-10-03 15:41:28. Original title: Quanto petrolio ha l’Iran?
