Saudi Arabia is the most important nation to have applied for BRICS membership. Its inclusion will seriously challenge the US-led global order.
Tomorrow, Tuesday, August 22nd, the official BRICS meeting will start in Johannesburg, South Africa. China’s President Xi Jinping already landed in the South African capital on only his second trip abroad this year.
BRICS is an economic bloc made of the five most prominent emerging economies: Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa.
China, the world’s second-largest economy, wishes to rival the United States’ dominance over world affairs. Xi’s wish is to create a rival economic bloc to the US-led G7 and replace the dollar as the global reserve currency.
At Johannesburg, the bloc will discuss the possible inclusion of other members. A total of 22 countries have applied for membership, including eminent geopolitical players like Iran, Indonesia, and the United Arab Emirates.
One nation in particular, however, would become the new BRICS crown jewel were it integrated into the bloc: Saudi Arabia. The world’s largest exporter and second-largest producer of crude oil is one of the most important pieces on the geopolitical chessboard.
Saudi Arabia can single-handedly decide the global price of oil, the world’s most important commodity that every nation desires.
Given its unparalleled importance, Saudi Arabia is curtailed by the West and the East alike. Until a few years ago, Saudi Arabia was a staunch American ally, but the balance has shifted quickly in favor of China.
The inclusion of Saudi Arabia in the BRICS will not be taken lightly by the United States.
How China is winning in the Middle East
In order to salvage the Saudi situation and prevent China from taking over, US President Joe Biden has been trying to open relationships again.
The United States is currently working out a possible normalization of relationships in the Middle East, revolving around Saudi Arabia’s role as a regional hegemon.
Saudi Arabia, however, is a difficult friend to satisfy. They agreed to a possible recognition of Israel, the US main ally in the Middle East, only on the condition of a complete withdrawal of Israeli troops from Palestine. Furthermore, they asked for security guarantees against Iran and the implementation of a civil nuclear program.
All of these conditions cross many American red lines. Discussions will likely be prolonged and lead to many unsatisfactory compromises.
Friendship with China, on the other hand, comes with much fewer strings attached. Beijing does not have a dangerous friend like Israel roaming around in the region and China is the largest buyer of Saudi oil (while the US stopped purchases).
The only thing China cannot guarantee is military security against Iran. However, inclusion in the BRICS alliance might provide it. China recently brokered a truce between Saudi Arabia and Iran, proving to be an interesting alternative for the Saudi Kingdom.
On the other hand, Russia and China are the only BRICS members to want Saudi Arabia in the bloc. Will Xi convince Brazil, India, and South Africa as well?
A Saudi change of fields will be consequential in the years to come. And not in favor of the West.
