An attack on Taiwan would solve China’s increasing economic problems. If successful...
"War is good for business, the best there is!" This is how Will Hamilton convinced the young Cal Trask, played by non-other than James Dean, into starting a profitable business. This is how "East of Eden", the Hollywood masterpiece directed by Elia Kazan, starts the central conflict.
The war in Kazan’s classic was World War I, and the film was directed after World War II when the United States emerged as the world’s superpower. The core principle, however, has never changed. Wars are good for business.
In World War I, 40 million people lost their lives. In World War II, that number rose to roughly 60 million. It is generally agreed that a third world war could cause hundreds of millions of casualties, as it would almost certainly involve atomic weapons.
But war is good for business.
It’s becoming increasingly clear that World War III would be fought for Taiwan. A bloody conflict between the United States, the world hegemon, and China, the main contender for the title.
China is running out of time
If China wants to rule the world, it needs to act fast. China has merely two decades to take over the United States: statistics speak for themselves.
China’s youth is disappearing, either migrating away or simply getting older. China’s population is dropping, losing its title as the world’s most populous country. By 2050, China’s median age will be 54, compared to 41 in the United States. The fact of the matter is that a country cannot conquer the world with an old population.
On the other hand, China’s youth is leaving the country because of its crippling youth unemployment issue. As China switches to a service-based economy, youth education does not qualify them for the job market.
For example, while graduates in education and sport rose by 20%, the only sector where hiring demand increased in 2022 was mining.
Furthermore, China’s housing market is weakening. Massive ghost towns designed to house 10 million people are left almost completely unpopulated. Trust in the sector is steadily declining despite the best efforts of the central government.
Finally, exports are stagnating. China’s manufacturing power is being replaced by other cheap-labor sources like Mexico. As a result, the Chinese offer focuses on internal demand, weakening the country’s influence on world trade.
In short, China’s historic growth period has ended.
What is the obvious solution? What would instantly solve China’s youth unemployment? The one thing that, if successful, would make China the world’s most prominent trading partner? War. A big one.
But China clearly cannot win a war against the United States. A direct conflict with the world’s biggest and most advanced military would be an absolute disaster.
Again, though, time is running out. When backed into a corner, humans act instinctively. And what are nations, if not big agglomerations of humans?
