Poland is the staunchest anti-Russian NATO ally, but the impasse over grain exports fueled tensions with Ukraine.
Poland will stop weapons exports to war-torn Ukraine, Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said on Wednesday. Poland is one of the most strategically important allies of NATO and supported Ukraine against the illegal invasion of Russia since the first days.
However, as often happens in war, allies often don’t get along very well and come at odds over several issues. The conflict between Poland and Ukraine erupted in recent months over a grain export dispute.
Before the war, Ukraine was one of the top grain exporters in the war, often in competition with Poland for agricultural trade with the European Union. Poland is a member of the EU and has privileged access to the single market, while Ukraine needs to comply with many regulations.
With the start of the war, Russian ships in the Black Sea threatened Ukrainian grain exports. This caused a humanitarian crisis in many African and Middle Eastern countries who rely on Ukrainian grain to survive. For Yemen, Somalia, and Ethiopia, among others, Ukrainian grain is literally a vital staple.
During the summer, Russia backed down from a grain agreement put into place in 2022. The only trade route Ukraine had left was with Poland and the European Union.
In order to facilitate trade with its war ally, the EU eased restrictions for Ukrainian grain, thereby threatening Polish farmers’ revenues. In response, Poland and other Eastern European countries outright banned grain imports from Ukraine.
Escalation
The ban was heavily criticized by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, whose assertive tone angered Poland even more.
At his latest United Nations speech, Zelensky said that Poland and the EU were making “a thriller for grain.”
In response, Morawiecki and Polish President Andrzej Duda halted military support to Ukraine. According to some estimates, Poland already sent one-third of its military capabilities to Ukraine, including Soviet-era tanks.
Morawiecki and Duda face a parliamentary election next month, with a rise in polls of far-right political parties. The current establishment, therefore, is trying to send the best possible messages to its electoral pool – mainly composed of farmers.
Poland remains the most anti-Russian member of the European Union and NATO. Even after next month’s election, its anti-Russian sentiment will likely remain triumphant.
Nevertheless, rivalry with Ukraine entails an inward focus for Poland. As Morawiecki, the country will focus on protecting itself before protecting others.
Poland was the 6th largest donor for Ukraine, as well as the most popular destination for Ukrainian refugees. Without its support, Ukraine loses a crucial ally in a war that is hardly progressing in its favor.
