The Armed Forces of Ukraine are probing offensive attacks on a new front. How is the war progressing?
As the Ukrainian counter-offensive continues its grind towards the first line of defenses, a new front may be opened against the Russian occupiers in the south of the country. Meanwhile, heavy fighting from both sides continues in Eastern Ukraine too.
The Armed Forces of Ukraine have reportedly succeeded in making a bridgehead on the left bank of the Dnieper. This major river divides the Ukrainian and Russian areas of control in front of Kherson, the regional capital liberated by Ukraine last September.
Since the liberation of Kherson, Ukraine lacked the forces to cross the Dnieper into the heavily defended Russian-occupied territory. The recent explosion of the Nova Khakovka Dam, however, completely changed the situation.
As the dam’s reserves flooded the region, killing dozens of Ukrainian citizens, it also further prevented any move from Ukraine to cross the river. Since then, however, the reserves have dried up, leaving open ground between the two banks.
Russia did not have the time to set up defenses on the dried ground, and the Ukrainian forces are probing a possible attack from there. Reports say Ukraine opened a bridgehead across the Dnieper and continues to reinforce it. No Russian counter-attack has challenged this new Ukrainian position yet, but an eventual expansion will likely lead to heavy fighting.
The Ukrainian counter-offensive
Meanwhile, the main thrust of the Ukrainian counter-offensive continues to make small gains in the Zaporizhzhya direction. Two villages have been recently liberated by the Ukrainian army, though the attack is progressing much slower than expected.
After 10 weeks of fighting, the Ukrainian army has not even reached the first line of defense yet. In that direction, Russia set up four defensive lines plus a defensive perimeter around the major urban center of Tokmak.
Western analysts believe Ukraine cannot win this attrition battle and will need to rethink its strategy. On the other hand, Kyiv hopes Western F-16s jet fighters will change the situation, but they are unlikely to be provided before 2024.
At the same time, Ukraine is trying to surround the barren city of Bakhmut, on the Eastern side of the country. Small gains are being made daily and faster than in the South, as Russia did not set up any meaningful defensive line in that region.
On the Eastern side of the country, the Russian armed forces are also conducting a small counter-attack in the Kupyansk direction. So far, this attack made more or less the same territorial gains as the Ukrainian counter-offensive in the south.
The Russian aim is to conquer the tactically important town of Kupyansk and stabilize the front line, relieving forces crucially needed in the South and around Bakhmut to defend against Ukraine.
In general, however, both sides seem exhausted by this long-drawn conflict. At the moment, neither Russia nor Ukraine appears to be significantly winning. The worst-case scenario, and also the most likely, is a territorial division of Ukraine similar to North and South Korea on the current line of contact.
In that case, Russia will have failed its general objective of toppling the Ukrainian government, but Ukraine will also have failed to reconquer the land it lost.
A “Korean scenario” will leave tensions between Russia and Ukraine high for decades to come, essentially freezing the war.
