The fight around Kherson becomes increasingly brutal as the war between Ukraine and Russia reaches a new turning point.
As Europe approaches winter, the Ukrainian counter-offensive keeps going with less and less momentum (a normal phase of every military operation). Right now, the main focus of the Ukrainian troops is Kherson, the biggest city occupied by Russia.
And Kherson is also where the Russian defenses are focused right now. Vladimir Putin, Russia’s President, has recently declared the annexation of the four occupied Ukrainian regions into the Russian Federation. He did this after an illegal referendum into the four regions, which was declared illegal by every foreign power (including Russia’s allies).
The referendum, which was held at gunpoint and without a secret vote, “overwhelmingly favored” the annexation. But this did not stop Ukraine, which kept gaining territory ever since.
Now the Ukrainian forces are closing in around Kherson (capital of one of the four annexed regions) and Putin is taking measures to prevent it. On Wednesday, he declared martial law in the occupied territories of Ukraine.
This comes after civilians in Kherson have been evacuated into Russian territory, signaling that Ukraine is very close to the city. Martial law will now allow for extraordinary measures to be taken by the Russian occupying forces, including forced deportation of civilians.
But not even martial law will stop Ukraine, according to many of Kyiv’s top officials. Mykhailo Podolyak, Ukraine’s presidential adviser, clearly stated it on Twitter.
"Martial law" implementation on the occupied territories by RF should be considered only as a pseudo-legalization of looting of Ukrainians’ property by another "regrouping". This does not change anything for Ukraine: we continue the liberation and deoccupation of our territories.
— Михайло Подоляк (@Podolyak_M) October 19, 2022
What can the martial law change
Despite Ukrainian resilience, the martial law can actually be very impactful for the course of the conflict. First of all, now Russia can draft conscripts into the army directly from occupied territories.
This would mean forcing Ukrainians to fight against their own people. Russia already mobilized 300.000 of their own conscripts, but the more soldiers the better for them.
Further, the martial law also allows Russia to forcibly relocate civilians. Vladimir Saldo, Russia’s appointed leader of Kherson, already announced the evacuation of over 50.000 people. According to him, they will be moved into Russian cities like Rostov and Krasnodar (both in the Caucasus).
US intelligence declared that 1.2 million Ukrainians have actually already been displaced from their homes. This, according to Ukraine, is considered a war crime.
Finally, with martial law Russia can curb movements of civilians, imposing curfews or similar measures.
The imposition of martial law shows once again that Moscow will not give up Kherson without a fight. The city is crucially important for Russian logistics and Russian prestige. Ukraine does not have the military capabilities for a costly urban combat. Their only chance is to isolate the city and cut off Russian supplies allowing them to retreat.
Russia might end up doing that, but they will not make it easy for Ukraine.
