As the Ukrainian counter-offensive comes to a close, the two warring countries prepare for the winter. Isolated Russia and depleted Ukraine will have to make tough choices.
A few hours ago, the UN General Assembly deemed the annexation of Ukrainian occupied territory into Russia illegal. 143 countries voted in favor of condemning the action, while 35 abstained and 4 voted against. The three supporters of the Kremlin were North Korea, Syria and Nicaragua, while India and China abstained.
So, the international community officially declared the referendum and subsequent annexation illegal. Meanwhile, Ukraine kept regaining territory around the city of Kherson, or at least so does Kyiv claim. Specifically, The Guardian reports that 5 new villages in the outskirts of the city might have been liberated. Kyiv also praised the arrival of new missile systems from Germany. Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov tweeted a message of gratitude.
A new era of air defence has begun in 🇺🇦. IRIS-Ts from 🇩🇪 are already here. 🇺🇸 NASAMS are coming. This is only the beginning. And we need more. No doubt that russia is a terrorist state.
There is a moral imperative to protect the sky over 🇺🇦 in order to save our people. pic.twitter.com/jvbXUwDjc8— Oleksii Reznikov (@oleksiireznikov) October 11, 2022
But the Ukrainian counter-offensive appears to be losing momentum (like every offensive). This was likely planned by Kyiv: regaining as much territory as possible before the onset of the muddy season. Warfare in that region is severely limited between October and November due to rains and muds (the infamous Rasputiza which slowed down many generals before) which impede the movement of heavy machinery.
Unfortunately for Ukraine, Kherson will probably remain in Russian hands at least until combat resumes. And with Kherson, Nova Kakhovka as well: the vital town on the river Dnieper that supplies fresh water to Crimea.
Both sides will spend the month of the Rasputiza regrouping. Russia and Ukraine are faced with a shortage of ammunition, machinery and, most importantly, manpower. The risk is that this horrible conflict will transform into an attrition war: a morbid game of who runs out of resources first. And the bets are open.
Who will win the resource war
It’s the tale of David vs Goliath, but this time David might actually lose. Ukraine is in a very tough spot: the West is reaching the amount of weapons they can send to Kyiv and after that they might be all alone.
French President Emmanuel Macron already said that France has sent everything they could, and the US stopped sending the vital HIMARS waiting for new ones to be produced. Furthermore, once the Ukrainian counter-offensive will stop Kyiv will not be able to retrieve Russian equipment from reconquered land.
And, most importantly, Ukraine has a small population compared to that of Russia, and so a limited number of soldiers. The recent retaliation campaign by the Kremlin following the attack on Kerch bridge also showed that Ukraine lacks proper defense systems.
But this also shows Ukraine strength: its allies. US top official Mark Miley said that Washington is ready to prop-up Ukraine’s defense system with an interconnected net of anti-air missiles. The implementation will be “Complicated” but “Achievable” reported the CNN.
Further, Russia might be a bigger nation but its complete isolation might cause her to run out of resources first. “They need a supply chain, and large parts of their supply chain were not in Russia, they came from all over the world including in Europe and including, indeed, even in Ukraine,” British Defense Minister Ben Wallace said.
So, the 300.000 new concripts might turn out to be less useful than Putin thought, if Russia doesn’t have the capabilities to supply them.
The war in Ukraine is still an open battlefield: the Ukrainian counter-offensive in September might have been Kyiv’s final epitaph just as it could have been the turning point of the war.
