The most optimistic forecast for the S&P 500 has emerged, driven by expectations surrounding the impact of a second Trump administration. The projected target is set for the end of 2025
On Wall Street, the S&P 500] continues to show strength, heading towards closing 2024 on a buying note.
But investors are already looking ahead, trying to understand what could happen to the benchmark list of the US stock market, in the year in which Donald Trump returns to the White House.
What will happen to the SPX index in 2025?
Various forecasts have been announced by as many strategists and analysts: among these, the most bullish forecast among those announced to date stands out.
It is worth remembering the upward performance of the S&P 500 stock index, which has continued to rise in recent weeks, thanks to Donald Trump’s clear victory in the US presidential elections, which has eliminated the uncertainty about the outcome of the US vote.
The S&P 500 is trading at a value higher than 2% on a monthly basis and almost +10% compared to three months ago.
On an annual basis, the S&P 500 has risen by nearly 33%, while its year-to-date performance reflects a gain of approximately 27%.
S&P 500: here is the most bullish forecast for 2025
According to Christopher Harvey, strategist of the equity division of Wells Fargo, the race has evidently not stopped, quite the opposite.
It was precisely him who churned out the most bullish forecast for the list, announcing a target for the end of next year equal to 7,007 points: a value that implies a jump of the S&P 500 of over 26% between now and the end of 2025.
"On balance, we expect the Trump Administration to usher in a macro environment that is increasingly favorable for stocks at a time when the Fed will be slowly reducing rates. In short, a backdrop where equities continue to rally", Harvey says.
He is optimistic about the growth of corporate margins which is destined to strengthen, thanks to a rate of expansion on an annual basis of the US GDP higher than the +2.1% expected by the consensus.
Among other things, according to the expert, Wall Street will also benefit slightly at the end of 2025 from the resumption of M&A activities, i.e. mergers and acquisitions.
In his view, buying activity will focus on the remaining 493 stocks outside the Magnificent Seven. These gains are expected to come primarily from cyclical sectors, which stand to benefit from stronger U.S. economic growth, a more favorable regulatory environment, and upward revisions to U.S. GDP estimates.
The other forecasts signed by Yardeni, Deutsche Bank, JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs
Wells Fargo’s outlook stands out among those announced so far on Wall Street for the S&P 500.
Yardeni Research and Deutsche Bank are also decidedly bullish, with a target price for the end of 2025 identified at 7,000; BMO Capital Markets analysts are forecasting a price of 6,700 points, while Bank of America is betting on 6,666 points.
RBC Capital Markets is forecasting an S&P 500 rise to 6,600 points, as is the research division of Barclays.
Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan are less bullish, aiming for 6,500 points, while UBS has shown a forecast of an index at 6,400 points.
Harvey clarified that his initial intention was to announce a "lean contrarian" view, given concerns about bullish market sentiment, lofty stock valuations, and already solid economic growth.
But, he realized that he data did not support" a weak or negative year for the S&P 500.
"2025 is likely to be a solid-to-strong year," he explained in his 2025 outlook.
Original article published on Money.it Italy 2024-12-04 15:38:15. Original title: S&P 500, la previsione più bullish a Wall Street per il 2025
