Erdogan is ahead in election results despite Turkey’s many internal crises. How is it possible?
As the first round of the “most important elections of 2023” comes to a close, the eyes of the world are on Turkey and the future path it will take. Turkey is a historically ambiguous NATO member, politically and geographically “connecting” the West and the East.
Incumbent president Recep Tayyip Erdogan is running for his third term. Including his 10 years tenure as prime minister, Erdogan has effectively run Turkey for 20 years.
During this time, he reinforced Turkey’s geopolitical position, enlarging the country’s sphere of influence. Under Erdogan, Turkey became one of the most important actors in the Middle East and the world.
Erdogan intervened men-on-ground in the Syrian and Libyan civil wars. He damaged relationships with Greece, threatening a military invasion of disputed islands in the Aegean Sea. He actively supported Azerbaijan, de facto bringing the Caucasus region under Turkish control.
Most importantly, Turkey is now a vital geopolitical player for the United States, Russia and China alike. Erdogan’s role of “international mediator” allowed him to exploit every major international crisis (including the war in Ukraine) in his favor.
Erdogan’s foreign policy has been so successful that Kemal Kilicdaroglu, the main opposition candidate, promised he would carry it on with basically no changes.
As the final votes are being counted on Monday, Erdogan appears ahead with 49.4%, while Kilicdaroglu is behind with 44.96%. Because no candidate won with an absolute majority, Erdogan and Kilicdaroglu will face each other in a second turn on May 28th.
The Kurdish crisis
If Erdogan’s foreign policy was so successful it made Turkey one of the world’s most important countries, why is Kilicdaroglu able to seriously threaten his rule?
During his 20-year long regime, Erdogan also cracked down Kurdish resistance in the south-east of the country.
Kurds are the world’s largest displaced people, with members of their ethnicity spanning from Turkey to Iran, from Syria to Iraq. While some countries recognize a degree of autonomy for the Kurdish people, others like Turkey actively suppress them.
The Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), whose main goal is to obtain more autonomy from Ankara, is dubbed as a “terrorist organization” by the Turkish government. Many Kurdish leaders like Selahattin Demirtas are in prison. The Kurdish “low-level” war of liberation has killed roughly 40.000 civilians since 1984.
Therefore, Kurdistan is a historical anti-Erdogan bastion, who already announced their support for Kilicdaroglu.
Furthermore, Erdogan’s foreign policy might have been successful, but his financial measures almost destroyed the country’s economy. Turkey’s inflation has consistently been over 85% for years and Erdogan refused to take sensible measures to stop it.
This led to a general decline in the quality of life, which overall increased anti-government sentiments.
Nevertheless, Erdogan is still ahead and might win again on May 28th.
