With Ron DeSantis dropping out of the 2024 US elections, there are only two candidates left for the Republican nominee: Donald Trump and Nikky Haley.
On January 21st, 2024, Republican candidate Ron DeSantis dropped out of the 2024 presidential elections. He endorsed the favorite for the primary race: former US president Donald Trump. What will happen now in the 2024 US elections?
Ron DeSantis never stood a chance against Donald Trump. According to many analysts, his campaign was too similar to Trump’s, with less charisma and experience. DeSantis’ main talking point was backing Trump in his many criminal indictments, pledging to pardon him when he became president.
At the Iowa caucus, considered a crucial test for electoral campaigns, Ron DeSantis lost by 30 percentage points. Donald Trump, on the other hand, won by a landslide with 51% of the votes.
Now, only two candidates remain in the Republican primary: Donald Trump and former U.N. Ambassador Nikky Haley. At the Iowa caucus, Haley came third with 19% of the votes.
Donald Trump remains the absolute favorite in the Republican primaries, and will most likely face incumbent president Joe Biden in the November elections. Nikky Haley, however, will not go out without a fight… at least for now.
The next two primary votes will be on January 23rd in New Hampshire and, crucially, on February 24th in South Carolina. In order to have a chance, Nikky Haley needs to win in South Carolina, her home state. Losing there would be a political humiliation and would basically confirm Trump as the Republican candidate.
Can Nikky Haley win?
Contrary to Ron DeSantis, Nikky Haley did not fear attacking directly Donald Trump. She questioned Trump’s age and criminal record, attracting many voters who fear Trump may be unsuited for president.
At the New Hampshire primaries, Donald Trump is most likely going to win. However, Nikky Haley shortened the gap in the last few months.
According to state polls by FiveThirtyEight, Trump had a 30% lead on Haley in November. Following the Iowa caucus, Trump’s lead decreased to 13%. As of January 21st, Trump is set to win in New Hampshire with 49.8%, with Haley getting 36.1%.
New Hampshire is definitely going to Trump, but Haley’s performance will define the future of her campaign. The closer the gap, the higher her chances.
As we said, the real fight will take place in South Carolina. At the moment, Trump is set to win there with almost 61% of the votes, with Haley struggling behind at 24%.
Nikky Haley has one month to invert those odds. South Carolina voters will most likely be influenced by her performance in New Hampshire. Nevertheless, Haley’s chances remain very slim, with already two states (Iowa and New Hampshire) virtually secured by Trump.
