Ukraine is zeroing in around the city of Kherson, capital of one of the four occupied regions by Russia. Retaking it would be their most important prize so far, but it is far from easy.
The Ukrainian counter-offensive is over two months old, having started at the end of August with the liberation of some southern villages. The overall objective of the counter-offensive has always been to liberate as much of the south as possible. The main prize for Ukraine would be Kherson (280.000 inhabitants before the war), the only regional capital captured by Russia.
It was captured almost immediately after the start of the invasion in February. Russia dreamed of using Kherson as a base for an offensive to Odessa, a plan that didn’t work out because of strong Ukrainian resistance. Kherson, however, holds a significant geopolitical importance: it holds the water reserves that supply Crimea.
After the illegal occupation of Crimea by Russia in 2014, Kyiv decided to cut off their water supplies. Restoring the flow of water to Crimea was one of the reasons added by Putin for the start of the February invasion.
If Ukraine were to retake Kherson, they would most definitely cut supplies to Crimea again. This, along with the disruption of movement caused by the destruction of the Kerch bridge, would significantly impair Russian war capacity. The question is: can Ukraine actually retake Kherson?
Can the Ukrainian counter-offensive reach Kherson
Kyiv’s generals have calculated their moves brilliantly, allowing them to carry out a textbook counter-offensive. They concentrated forces around Kherson without frontal attacks, exploiting the powerful long-distance weapons the West gave them. This disrupted Russian supplies and forced them to retreat.
This also frightened Russia, who reinforced the Kherson region by taking away troops from other fronts. Then, Ukraine unleashed its move: attacking the main Russian supply depots in occupied territory, the Kharkiv region up north. Therefore, other than taking back huge swaths of lands, Ukraine could now attempt an actual liberation of Kherson.
Taking back a city of 280.000 without a fight is, however, a major feat. Ukraine probably can’t afford a costly urban battle (Russia barely could with superior manpower in Mariupol). So, they are currently surrounding the city and keeping the Russian supply line as short as possible. Eventually, if the plan works, Russia will be forced to retreat from Kherson.
What plays in favor of Ukraine is the Kherson position. The city sits on the “wrong” bank of the river for Russia. Ukraine is attacking from the left bank of the mighty Dnieper, the same bank where Kherson is. Therefore, Russia has to defend the city from across the river: men and equipment have to cross the Dnieper and this is a major logistical issue for Russia.
What plays in favor of Russia is their numbers. Urban combat usually always favors the defenders, even if they are outnumbered. Russia can decide where and how to fight, can set out traps and defensive systems, can sway the local population to their side. And this is exactly what they are doing now. Russia even declared martial law in occupied regions, which allows them to force the local population to fight on their side.
It is unclear how the battle of Kherson will turn out. One thing is for certain: it will be the main focus of the war for the upcoming winter, and maybe even later.
