Although the advance is slow, the willingness to fight by the Ukrainian military impresses Western allies, who might decide to send new military equipment.
How is the Ukrainian counter-offensive going, one month and a half after its official start? Not great, not terrible, as one former nuclear power plant manager would say.
Progress is slow, losses are high, but Russian morale and equipment seem to be running out faster than Ukrainian ammunition, at least for now. Reports claim that the counter-offensive is now extended to the Bakhmut sector, which Ukraine abandoned in late May following the bloodiest battle in the war so far.
Being their latest conquest, the Russians did not have time to fortify Bakhmut as heavily as the Zaporizhzhya sector in the south. Russian defenses in the south include minefields, four in-depth fortification lines, and overall harsh terrain.
The "bocage", as it is known in military terms, is one of the worst terrains for an attacking force. It takes its name from the Normandy fields that slowed the Allied advance during World War II. They consist of small "squares" surrounded by thick forest: attackers must clear them one at a time even if the enemy is often hidden.
"And so where [the Ukrainians] are gaining hundreds of meters a day, maybe a kilometer a day in some places, they’re doing that at great cost in terms of effort," said Pentagon Joint Staff Director Douglas Sims.
But a slow advance does not mean defeat. The Ukrainian army appears strongly motivated to continue, but will they have enough resources to do so?
Western help
If anything, the fact that Ukrainians are advancing despite all odds should prompt Western nations to finally send F-16 fighter jets and long-range missiles. Air superiority would ease Ukrainian operations a lot, making the counter-offensive quicker.
In any case, for the moment Western nations have agreed on resupplying Ukraine with all the equipment lost during the initial phases. Germany, in particular, will send new batches of Leopard 1 and 2 battle tanks to Kyiv.
Some nations, including the United Kingdom and France, have already agreed to send long-range missiles. They are currently in operations in the counter-offensive.
Since Moscow started its invasion in February 2022, the United States was always the last major Western nation to send advanced military equipment. They have been hesitant about sending F-16 for the entire duration of the war, but this counter-offensive might be what changes their minds.
Further, it appears that Russia is losing its political and social stability. The attempted military coup by Yevgeny Prigozhin exposed the cracks in Putin’s regime. It is impossible to say how the war will continue, but many believe (not just in the West) that Putin has already lost.
