The Bank of England also left interest rates unchanged, but what indications did it give about the start of cuts?
The Bank of England kept interest rates stable at 5.25% but hinted at cuts on the horizon with inflation falling faster than expected.
The Monetary Policy Committee voted 8-1 to keep rates on hold, with one member opting to cut 25 basis points to 5%. Notably, for the first time this cycle, no one voted in favor of further increases, after two members had favored a quarter-point increase in the previous meeting.
Bailey explained that there were “further encouraging signs that inflation is falling”, but also warned that the BoE needed greater certainty that price pressures were fully under control. The most pressing question concerns the timing of rate cuts: when will the Bank of England start?
BoE and rate cuts: when will the turning point be?
Every time the central bank meets, economists analyze the exact words it uses to see what has changed since the last time. At this March BoE meeting much of the language remained unchanged, but the Bank of England said rates “are reducing inflationary pressures”.
The Bank is tasked with keeping inflation under control, and interest rates are its main tool for doing so. When rates rise, it tends to put downward pressure on inflation.
Inflation, as measured by the consumer price index, has been very high over the past two years for a variety of reasons, including Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Data released by the Office for National Statistics on Wednesday showed inflation reached 3.4% in February, the lowest point since 2021.
In this context, Governor Bailey emphasized: “We are not yet at the point where we can cut interest rates, but things are moving in the right direction”.
Investors have slightly increased their bets on interest rate cuts throughout 2024, with a 76% chance of a first cut in June and a 75 basis point reduction now fully priced in by December.
“Every month that passes without an upward surprise in inflation or wage growth brings the MPC ever closer to cutting interest rates,” said Rob Wood, chief U.K. economist at consultancy Pantheon Macroeconomics.
The BoE decision follows the Federal Reserve announcement on Wednesday that it remained on track for three interest rate cuts this year, spurring stock market rallies.
The ECB instead sought to calm talk of a series of rate cuts for the Eurozone, stressing that June will still be a crucial month.
Original article published on Money.it Italy 2024-03-21 15:17:25. Original title: Quando taglierà i tassi Bank of England?
