Donald Trump is actively conducting a campaign to withdraw from NATO. Will he actually do it?
Former US President and Republican candidate Donald Trump blasted NATO allies during a campaign event on Saturday. He specifically lashed out at European nations’ lack of military spending, saying he’d “encourage Russia” to attack them.
According to NATO’s chart, members must spend 2% of their GDP on defense budget. Of the 31 member nations, only 11 follow this requirement. The top 3 military spenders by percentage of GDP are Poland, the US, and Greece respectively.
During his presidency, Donald Trump often complained that European allies were not spending nearly enough as the United States for their defense. Since NATO’s inception, the US never considered this an issue as the alliance was its strongest way of projecting power in the world. Moreover, the numerous US military bases in several European countries were silently considered as compensation for the lack of defense spending.
Trump’s statement came as the US Congress discusses military aid to Ukraine, Israel, and Taiwan. Last year, Republicans linked this issue to the border issue, but a recent bill including foreign aid and additional measures for border control was rejected by Senate Republicans.
This move made clear that Trump’s goal is to halt military aid to Ukraine. Whether a new bill is pushed through depends on the Republican majority in the House.
Will Trump get out of NATO?
In his run-up to the 2024 elections, Donald Trump pledged to withdraw from NATO entirely if members did not achieve spending levels. Not all Republicans are pleased with his statements. “This is why I’ve been saying for a long time that he’s unfit to be president of the United States,” former Republican candidate Chris Christie said.
Nikki Halley, the only Republican candidate left other than Trump, also rebuked the idea of leaving NATO. “The last thing we ever want to do is side with Russia,” she said.
Nevertheless, this idea appeals to many Republican voters, who vocally side with Trump’s idea of fair military spending by allies.
The US Congress is clearly afraid of this idea. In late 2023, Congress swiftly passed a bill forbidding any President from withdrawing from NATO unilaterally. Though this bill could stop Trump in the future, it could also be overruled by Congress again. It will depend on Congress’ formation after the election.
This would not be the first time in history the US turned isolationist. It would be the first time, however, that it renounced its role as global hegemon. Such a move would have catastrophic effects on the US economy, not only because of the current role of the dollar as the global reserve currency.
Meanwhile, EU member states are getting used to an unreliable US, speaking plainly of creating a joint European Army to defend against Russian aggression.
