Bitcoin price forecasts following the bear market that hit the world’s number one cryptocurrency. Money.it asked ARK Invest 10 questions.
What to expect from Bitcoin after the significant reversal recently, which caused prices to slip even below the psychological threshold of $90,000?
What are the forecasts for the world’s number one cryptocurrency, at a time when market participants are trying to assess whether Bitcoin’s recent all-time high of $126,000 marked a cyclical top, or whether the current downside move is merely a corrective phase within a broader long-term uptrend?
Money.it interviewed Lorenzo Valente, Director of Research on Digital Assets at ARK Invest, the investment firm specializing in thematic ETFs founded by Cathie Wood.
Valente reiterated ARK Invest’s structural bullishness on Bitcoin, underscored by its recent positioning in crypto-exposed equities such as Coinbase and Circle—the latter a major stablecoin issuer—and by an additional $2 million allocation to its own spot Bitcoin ETF, the ARK 21Shares Bitcoin ETF (ARKB).
Confirming ARK Invest’s high-conviction long-term view, the head of digital asset research responded to 10 questions from Money.it, offering insights into Bitcoin’s price outlook, institutional adoption trends, and macro-market correlations.
ARK Invest’s long-term Bitcoin targets remain notably ambitious. In the Big Ideas 2025 Report, the firm presented three scenarios for 2030, with even the bear case projecting a valuation more than three times higher than current levels, around $300,000.
Below are the responses, including the bull-case scenario and the base-case scenario for Bitcoin’s projected valuation—after the cryptocurrency registered a drop of over 16% in November alone.
1) How do you interpret the sharp sell-off hitting Bitcoin, and what factors are triggering the cryptocurrency sell-off?
The recent sell-off was triggered by a large-scale deleveraging and forced-liquidation cascade on Binance, currently the highest-volume venue for digital asset trading. The dislocation originated in the perpetual futures market, where widespread liquidations were activated as margin levels eroded. This undermined market confidence, accelerating the downside momentum.
While the immediate catalyst was crypto-specific, macro headwinds—such as concerns surrounding the now-resolved U.S. government shutdown and the ongoing contraction in global liquidity—intensified the move. The sell-off reflects both structural positioning imbalances and broader risk-off sentiment.
2) How is the Fed’s upcoming rate decision affecting the price of Bitcoin?
In the past year, Bitcoin has increasingly functioned as a macro-sensitive, high-beta asset, used for both hedging and price discovery due to its deep liquidity and continuous trading. Although the Fed decision remains a key driver, market-implied probabilities—such as Polymarket’s pricing of a 25-basis-point rate cut—indicate that much of the expected monetary-policy impact is already discounted by the market.
Regardless of the Fed’s immediate decision, we believe Bitcoin is entering next year from a position of relative strength, supported by structural demand from regulated vehicles like spot ETFs.
3) What is your forecast for the price of Bitcoin in 2026, and which macro variables do you consider most relevant?
ARK does not publish short-term (12–24 month) forecasts. Instead, our valuation framework focuses on long-term adoption curves. In the most recent Big Ideas report, we presented three 2030 outcomes based on variables such as institutional allocation, sovereign adoption, emerging-market penetration, and the growth of on-chain financial services.
In the bear case, Bitcoin could reach approximately $300,000. In the base case, our model points to around $710,000. In the bull case, we estimate the possibility of Bitcoin reaching up to $1.5 million. Updated projections will be released in the next Big Ideas report in January 2026.
4) Will Bitcoin still be the undisputed store of value in the crypto world in 2026, or could other digital asset classes erode its leadership?
We maintain that Bitcoin will continue to dominate the digital asset market in terms of market capitalization and credibility as a store of value. Its monetary policy—fixed supply and algorithmic issuance—combined with proof-of-work security makes it uniquely robust.
Its competitive moats remain substantial: first-mover advantage, unparalleled liquidity, regulatory clarity in key jurisdictions, and broadening institutional participation. These factors make displacement highly unlikely.
5) In this regard, will institutional investors continue to increase their exposure in 2026, or will regulatory risk hold them back?
We believe the regulatory backdrop is currently the most constructive it has ever been, setting the stage for sustained institutional inflows. Although spot Bitcoin ETFs have been active for more than a year, Bitcoin remains unavailable across many advisory networks and wealth-management platforms.
As distribution channels broaden in 2026, we expect institutional exposure to expand materially, driven by investors seeking regulated, transparent, and tax-efficient access.
6) What price level would be considered a good entry point for someone looking to invest in Bitcoin?
We do not provide investment advice or attempt to time markets. However, our long-term models continue to project that Bitcoin could compound at a CAGR exceeding 35% over the coming decade. Historically, investors with multi-year horizons have seen Bitcoin outperform nearly all major asset classes.
7) Do you believe the risks associated with a potential run on stablecoins could also impact the price of Bitcoin?
The GENIUS Act represents one of the most consequential regulatory developments for digital assets, enabling institutional-grade stability for compliant stablecoins. Stablecoins like USDC, fully backed by U.S. Treasuries—one of the world’s most liquid and secure asset classes—operate under stringent collateral requirements.
A bank-run scenario would imply undercollateralization, which is not applicable to regulated issuers. Consequently, we consider the likelihood of systemic contagion from regulated stablecoins to Bitcoin to be limited.
8) How do you see the relationship between Bitcoin and the price of gold?
Gold has risen more than 50% this year, supported in part by large-scale purchases from Tether, the largest stablecoin issuer, as well as record-high central bank accumulation. This broad-based demand expansion strengthens the broader store-of-value thesis.
Historically, rising demand for gold correlates with increasing appetite for alternative hedges against monetary debasement, including Bitcoin.
9) What is the correlation between Bitcoin’s performance and fears of a possible AI bubble?
Bitcoin frequently exhibits risk-on/risk-off dynamics, as demonstrated in our research. We do not believe that markets are currently experiencing an AI-driven speculative bubble. However, if equity markets face stress—for any catalyst—digital assets could be adversely affected, as occurred earlier this year.
Concerns about circular financing within the AI ecosystem (developers, chip manufacturers, cloud-computing providers) primarily affect tech valuations, but they can certainly influence broader market sentiment, impacting Bitcoin indirectly through risk-appetite channels.
10) Bitcoin skepticism remains high among many investors, who often cite Warren Buffett and other anti-crypto institutional investors. What’s your message to them?
We believe Bitcoin’s investment case is more compelling than ever. Regulatory transparency is improving, and investors now have access to institutional-quality, highly regulated products. Much of the skepticism stems from limited understanding, Bitcoin’s relatively short history, and past regulatory uncertainty—all conditions that are rapidly changing.
As the asset class matures, we expect more investors to feel comfortable allocating a portion of their portfolio to Bitcoin, particularly those seeking uncorrelated long-term appreciation or inflation-hedging characteristics.
Original article published on Money.it Italy 2025-12-03 11:22:00. Original title: Previsioni prezzo Bitcoin da urlo, ARK Invest risponde a 10 domande di Money.it
