What if the bubble had already begun? Here’s why Wall Street’s record highs hide a growing risk.
The risk of a financial bubble has reached record highs. The alarm is being raised not by niche analysts, but by two influential voices in global finance: David Solomon, CEO of Goldman Sachs, and strategists at Saxo Bank, who see the risk of a significant market correction in the next two years.
So, while global stock markets continue to break records, driven by the euphoria of artificial intelligence, this raises concerns among those who observe excessive speculative investment in a climate increasingly resembling the Dot-Com bubble.
For now, technology stocks continue to dominate the financial markets and money is flowing abundantly, but signs of overheating are multiplying. Has a new era fueled by AI truly begun, or are we witnessing the prelude to a sudden correction?
Goldman Sachs: "The market is moving faster than reality"
The CEO of Goldman Sachs leaves no room for optimistic forecasts. During a speech at Italian Tech Week in Turin, David Solomon acknowledged that artificial intelligence represents one of the greatest economic opportunities of our time. At the same time, however, he warned investors not to get carried away by euphoria. Markets move in cycles, and when a new technology triggers a rush to invest, history teaches us that enthusiasm tends to outpace underlying fundamentals.
This inevitably leads to a comparison with the late 1990s, when the internet revolutionized the economy and created web giants, but left a trail of failed companies and wasted capital in its wake. The Nasdaq itself lost more than 75% of its value in just over a year.
Today, the dynamic is similar. AI is attracting massive flows of capital, often to unprofitable companies. When the wave recedes, not everyone will be left afloat. "There will be a reset," he said, "and when that happens, people won’t feel good." A warning that should serve as a caution to those who see only the bright side of the tech boom.
Saxo Bank: "Euphoria and pessimism coexist, a sign of instability"
Saxo Bank’s view is no less cautious. In a recent analysis, the Danish institution observed that risk sentiment in the technology sector has deteriorated to levels not seen since the dot-com bubble, despite global indices still trading at record levels. A contrast that, for the Danish bank, is the clearest symptom of an economy in precarious equilibrium.
Analysts speak of a "contradictory climate" in which liquidity continues to push valuations higher, but the perception of risk is growing week by week.
Complicating the situation is the boom in private credit and off-balance sheet financing/exposures, which reminds many investors of the eve of the subprime crisis. The case of First Brands, an American automotive components company with $12 billion in debt that went bankrupt, is one of the alarm bells for Saxo. "This is not the time to predict, but to prepare," the bank writes.
If other companies, perhaps leading the artificial intelligence boom, were to follow First Brands’ path, crushed by debt and inflated valuations, markets could experience a sharp correction. Goldman Sachs urges investors to remain calm, Saxo Bank to protect themselves by diversifying, but both are sending an unequivocal message: the risk of a bubble is no longer a distant shadow; it is a concrete possibility. The next twenty-four months will tell whether this will be the most prosperous phase of the new technological cycle or the beginning of its painful downturn.
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Original article published on Money.it Italy 2025-10-08 07:53:00. Original title: Rischio bolla ai massimi. 2 banche d’affari prevedono un crollo dei mercati entro 24 mesi
