For Russia, every day of war is be a real drain in economic terms: the conflict cannot last indefinitely, without a diplomatic agreement there is a risk of nuclear nightmare.
How much is this war in Ukraine costing Russia? Almost eight months after the invasion by Moscow troops began, the toll for Vladimir Putin appears to be bloody in every respect.
Having conquered a large part of the Donbass and all the southern part of Ukraine adjacent to Crimea, areas now de facto annexed to Russia after the referendums which, however, were not recognized by the West, would have cost Putin in terms of human lives. The toll of about 65,000 Russian soldiers according to figures pitted by Kiev and British intelligence.
If these numbers were true, it would be a real carnage, so much so that the Kremlin was recently forced to call 300,000 reservists to the front: at the moment there would be 220,000 new soldiers ready to join the battle, even if it is estimated that 6-700,000 men Russians fled the country to avoid the call to arms.
Even economically the costs of the war would be very high for Vladimir Putin, even though Russia’s GDP would be holding up the impact of Western sanctions better than what was assumed at the beginning of the invasion.
Moscow, however, may not be able to economically support an "infinite" war like the quagmire of Ukraine suggests at this moment: this is why without decisive diplomatic action, the use of tactical nuclear weapons would always sadly remain a valid option for Putin, especially should the Russian president find himself in great economic and political difficulty.
How much does the war on Russia cost
Given the complexity of the situation, it is not very easy to estimate how much this war in Ukraine, which has been going on since February 24th, is costing Russia.
According to what was reported by the Adnkronos, already from the first months of the war in Ukraine "various estimates have indicated in a range between 300 and 900 million dollars a day the presumable expenditure for the Russian army" .
In detail, this total figure "would also include the salary of the soldiers, the expenditure for ammunition, for bullets, for rockets and for various weapons of war, but also the costs for repairing the damage and medical expenses for the injured".
Only for the response to the attack on the bridge in Crimea, when Russia launched 83 missiles in a single day against the main Ukrainian cities including the capital Kiev, there was talk of a cost of more than 100 million dollars since each missile used it would have a value of 1-2 million.
Can Putin stand a long war?
Last week the International Monetary Fund, publishing the World Economic Outlook, admitted that it was wrong in previous estimates regarding the impact of Western sanctions on Russia.
In fact, in 2022 Moscow’s GDP for the IMF will drop by 3.4%, against an initial estimate of 8.5%, which was then revised in the summer to 6%. The Russian economy is said to have held up "thanks to oil and resilience of domestic demand and the labor market".
For 2023, on the other hand, the estimate for Russia speaks of -2.3%, an improvement of 1.2% compared to what was assumed in the summer. For Ukraine, on the other hand, 2022 will lead to a 35% drop in GDP.
However, this does not mean that Vladimir Putin will have the economic strength to carry on an "endless" war. For Matteo Villa, an ISPI analyst, the Russian giant Gazprom from February to August collected 250 million euros a day but, in recent weeks, revenues have dropped to 130 million a day with the prospect of further decreasing shortly to 110 million.
Nuclear war danger
With the Ukrainian army reinvigorated by recent victories on the ground and funded by increasingly effective Western weapons, in order to win this war Vladimir Putin will need to increase the war effort even further.
This means even higher costs without the certainty of being able to force Ukraine to surrender: this is why the nuclear nightmare is sadly topical, with the various hawks and doves that lodge in the Kremlin that for some time have been clashing at regard.
After having conquered a satisfactory portion of territory, Vladimir Putin now seems to be willing to negotiate but is not of the same opinion Volodymyr Zelensky that, by virtue of the advance of his troops to the East, he aims to regain all the territories lost before to sit at the negotiating table.
In essence, given the high costs that could soon become unsustainable and considering the military difficulties in the field, Russia could consider the use of tactical nuclear weapons in order not to be defeated by this war.
A nuclear war could lead to two scenarios: Ukraine and the West, in order not to risk putting the whole world at risk, could accept the Russian conditions of a ceasefire or, in the most apocalyptic hypothesis, NATO it would severely attack Russia with potentially catastrophic consequences.
This war, given the high costs, cannot last much longer but, without a diplomatic breakthrough, there would seem to be only ways out to make your wrists tremble.
Original article published on Money.it Italy 2022-10-17 11:07:28.
Original title: Quanto costa la guerra alla Russia? Per Putin ogni giorno è un salasso
