How real - and serious - is Putin’s nuclear war threat? What weapons does Russia have?
The idea of a United Europe was born from the dream of peace of two French politicians, Schuman and Monnet, following two world wars, with more than 80 million deaths. To eradicate this barbarism forever from Europe: this was the aim of the EU. In his Strasbourg speech 75 years ago, Schuman declared:
"We are concluding a wonderful experiment, the realization of the recurring dream that has been proposed to the peoples of Europe for ten centuries: to create an organization among them to put an end to war and guarantee everlasting peace."
There have been no wars between the nations of the European Union from 1945 to today, marking the longest period of peace in the history of Europe in the modern age. A Union that has not only avoided conflicts but which has generated an evolution of people on a civil and democratic level. The latest decisions of the Council of Europe demonstrate, indirectly, that we are a component of America’s European empire.
Here we are in fact at war again while that certainty of peace in Europe dissolves. Remote cobelligerents in the conflict with Russia, even if we pretend not to participate. Biden’s words towards Putin, who however hateful he may be, remains a democratically elected President, are sincere but disturbing: "By God, this man cannot remain in power". Macron reminds the world that he has the atomic bomb and that he wants to send soldiers to Ukraine, Poland takes action for a head-on clash and Germany rearms.
At its meeting last month, the Council of Europe stated:
“The European Council underlines the imperative need to strengthen and coordinate military and civilian preparedness and strategic crisis management in the context of the evolving threat landscape. Invites the Council to continue the work and the Commission, together with the High Representative, to propose actions to strengthen crisis preparedness and response at the EU level as part of a multi-hazard, community-wide approach society, taking into account the responsibilities and competencies of the Member States, with a view to a future preparedness strategy".
Von der Leyen calls a New War Deal, “because the threat of war may not be imminent, but it cannot be ruled out. The risk of war should not make us fear that it will begin tomorrow, but it should not be underestimated”.
According to a warning from Putin dated February 29, “They must understand that we also have weapons that can hit targets on their territory,” regarding any deployment of NATO troops to Ukraine. “All this really threatens conflict with the use of nuclear weapons and the destruction of civilization. Don’t they understand?".
Is it true that Putin is very powerful on a nuclear level? And if so, what weapons does he have?
Russia has completed its decades-long modernization program to replace all of its Soviet-era nuclear systems with newer versions.
As of early 2024, Moscow had a stockpile of approximately 4,380 nuclear warheads assigned for use by long-range strategic launchers and short-range tactical nuclear forces. Of the accumulated warheads, approximately 1,710 strategic warheads are deployed: approximately 870 on land-based ballistic missiles, approximately 640 on submarine-launched ballistic missiles, and 200 on heavy bomber bases. Analyzing and estimating Russian nuclear forces is a challenging undertaking due to Putin’s decision in 2023 to suspend Russia’s participation in New START, the US-Russia bilateral treaty that requires both countries to exchange data on respective numbers of warheads and strategic launchers deployed.
New START was a key issue for transparency and allowed analysts to work backward from aggregate numbers to estimate the breakdown of strategic forces deployed by Russia. However, because Russia has not provided this data to the United States since September 2022, it is now more difficult to compile a picture of Russia’s nuclear force structure that is completely accurate.
The last time Russia updated its official deterrence policy was in 2020 through an executive order describing explicit conditions under which it could launch weapons. In this regard, Putin, on the occasion of some international meetings of the Valdai Club, declared:
“Russia’s nuclear weapons doctrine does not provide for a pre-emptive strike, and our concept is based on a mutual counterattack. This means that we are prepared and will use nuclear weapons only when we know for sure that some potential aggressor is attacking Russia, our territory."
We often hear the former Russian president and current vice-president of the Security Council, Dmitry Medvedev, threaten the use of nuclear weapons. In reality, only three people possess the so-called nuclear briefcases that can authorize a Russian nuclear launch: Putin, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, and Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov. An order from Putin must be countersigned by one of these two officials before any nuclear weapon can be launched.
Russia currently deploys intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) including the SARMAT missile (NATO code: SS30 Satan2). A missile is defined as "ballistic" when it has a suborbital trajectory and can carry single or multiple warheads which, depending on the load, can carry nuclear, bacteriological, or chemical threats. It is launched by military equipment equipped with high technology capable of reaching distant territories and in any case such as to avoid harmful effects on those who launch them.
No European state, to date, has the possibility of autonomous defense against attacks carried out with ballistic missiles. Some media sources have nicknamed the SARMAT missile the "Son of Satan" because it is the successor of the SS-18, which The United States and NATO have nicknamed "Satan", presumably to reflect his extraordinary destructive capacity.
The entry into service of SARMAT marks the future of the strategic balance between the Russian Federation, on the one hand, and the United States and more generally NATO, on the other. It has a range of 18 thousand kilometers, and can carry up to 10 autonomous nuclear warheads as well as devices that deceive adversary missile defenses.
It is estimated that each warhead has a yield varying between the equivalent of 31 and 62 (500 to 1000 kilotons) Hiroshima bombs. In addition to ballistic missiles, Russia is also developing a nuclear-powered, ground-launched, nuclear-armed, intercontinental-range cruise missile known as the 9M730 Burevestnik.
It also has submarines and submarine-launched ballistic missiles, strategic bombers, and non-strategic nuclear weapons (they are short-range nuclear weapons).
The largest user of non-strategic nuclear weapons in the Russian military is the navy, which possesses 784 warheads for use by land-attack cruise missiles, anti-ship cruise missiles, anti-submarine rockets, anti-aircraft missiles, torpedoes and bombs depth Submarines, aircraft carriers, cruisers, destroyers, frigates, corvettes, and naval aircraft can use these weapons.
Original article published on Money.it Italy 2024-04-16 12:22:31. Original title: Quanto è reale la minaccia nucleare della Russia?
