According to experts, volatility on stock markets could increase by November: the fiscal and trade policies of both candidates are still unclear.
Uncertainty increases in stock markets after the Trump-Harris debate: neither candidate has clarified future economic and fiscal policies. The face-off between the two candidates has not yet moved the needle and financial markets reflect this indecision, awaiting CPI inflation data at 2:30 p.m. today.
The Wall Street indices closed in disarray before the TV duel began at 9 p.m. local time with the Dow Jones down 0.23%, the S&P 500 up 0.45% and the Nasdaq Composite up 0.84%. The Cboe implied volatility (VIX) index, at about 19, remains below warning levels after a surge in August, but experts say it could rise in the coming weeks ahead of the November election.
The Spot Dollar Index, which measures the greenback’s strength against 10 major currencies, fell 0.2%. The U.S. dollar has traditionally risen when expectations for a re-election of Trump, who is known to favor protectionist trade policies, have strengthened. A Harris win could weaken the dollar on the back of more hawkish fiscal policy.
In Forex, the dollar fell to 141.41 Japanese yen from 142.41 yen. The euro rose to 1.1041, up from $1.1023.
The 10-year Treasury yield fell 5 basis points to 3.64%.
Asian benchmarks fell after a mixed close in New York: in Tokyo, the Nikkei 225 lost 1.49%, the Chinese Shanghai Composite and Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 indices marked -1% and -0.40% respectively, in Hong Kong the Hang Seng lost about 0.80%, Sydney the S&P/ASX 200 lost 0.30%, while in Seoul the Kospi lost 0.60%.
Trump-Harris debate: impact on markets
As heated as it was, the presidential debate between Republican representative Donald Trump and Democrat Kamala Harris did not offer interesting ideas for the markets, according to experts, leaving many points open on fiscal policy.
According to a CNN analysis, Harris has beaten the former president, but the outcome in November remains uncertain. Both candidates for the White House have not provided concrete details on their fiscal and trade policies, which could also depend on the makeup of Congress after the election.
Steve Sosnick, Interactive Brokers
“The debate was pretty general. They talked about chips, energy, and solar, but without specifics. There was nothing for the markets to sink their teeth into”.
“Because the margin is so narrow, I think the markets don’t know what to do at this stage. It looks like Harris is outpacing Trump, but I don’t know if the markets have voted yet. And I don’t know if the undecideds are watching. We may see more of a reaction as the keywords of this debate start to be aired and discussed in the coming days”.
Ken Cheung, Mizuho Securities Asia
“Part of the move in the US dollar is being driven by the performance of the debate. I think the interpretation of the Chinese yuan is that it is very sensitive to Trump’s tariff policy.”
Karl Schamotta, Corpay
“No final blow has been struck, but the dollar is weakening as Kamala Harris leads Donald Trump marginally in the forecast.”
Currencies that could be on the front lines of another trade war — the Mexican peso, Canadian dollar, and Chinese renminbi — are advancing amid thin volumes.
Original article published on Money.it Italy 2024-09-11 11:33:47. Original title: Cresce il rischio sui mercati. Tutta colpa del dibattito Trump-Harris
