After a long series of Ukrainian victories, Russia wants to take back the initiative. They have chosen to attack near the town of Bakhmut. Why?
A new fierce battleground in Ukraine might be starting to heat up as the rest of the country falls into winter cold. According to some reports on Tuesday and Wednesday, Russia is on the move in the Donbass, specifically near the railway hub in Bakhmut.
The Donbass is the Ukrainian region that gave Moscow the casus belli back in February. It has a major presence of ethnic Russians, and has waged passive warfare against Ukraine in the past 8 years.
When Russia invaded and annexed Crimea in 2014, they also started supplying Donbass militia to fight against Kyiv. Three days before the start of the current invasion, Vladimir Putin recognized the two Donbass Republics of Donetsk and Luhansk. Then, on February 24th, he started an attack on Ukraine having the main thrust precisely from the Donbass region.
The war has not been going in favor of Russia, with the sweeping Ukrainian counter-offensive retaking Kherson and the entire Kharkiv region. In September, in an attempt to take back the initiative, Putin announced the mobilization of 300.000 Russian troops.
It seems Russia wants to make an offensive of their own, much needed for their own morale and, of course, if they want to win. As their main objective they have chosen, again, the Donbass.
Where is Bakhmut and why is it important
Bakhmut is a major railway hub that sits precisely between Luhansk and Donetsk, the two biggest cities in the Donbass. Taking it would be an important Russian strategic victory, as they would solve most of their supply problems.
Right now, the Russian front is overstretched and, after the Ukrainian counter-offensive, with a plethora of supply issues. Moscow can hardly reinforce their troops, and without supplies no offensive army can continue fighting.
With Bakhmut, Russia could finally establish their presence in the Donbass. This, of course, if they manage to take it.
Reports from the front talk about a grinding battle of attrition going on now in Bakhmut. The Ukraine military is entrenched into the ground with Russian forces charging ahead in WW1 like scenarios.
It is a nightmare for soldiers on both sides, and a type of warfare that has historically always favored the defender. No matter how many men Russia has, as long as Ukraine has more bullets they should be able to repel the attacks.
And, again, Russia has yet to solve their main problem: morale. They are waging an offensive war and they are losing. Sanctions will eventually eat away Russian reserves and their economy will truly start to suffer.
Will Bakhmut really be the great breakthrough that will solve every problem? Or will it be another Russian humiliation? Only time will tell.
