Novaya Kakhovka, a village near Kherson, holds the vital water supplies for Crimea. Russia, under strong Ukrainian pressure, is evacuating the city.
Ukraine seems to achieve victory after victory as their sweeping counter-offensive reaches another crucial stepping stone. Russian forces are retreating from the Novaya Kakhovka village, abandoning an important dam and hydroelectric power plant.
The Tass agency reported that “Due to the constant shelling of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, employees of the administration of Novaya Kakhovka left the city and relocated to safe areas of the region.”
Novaya Kakhovka is a village close to Kherson, the major city liberated by Ukraine early this week. Kherson was a major prize for Ukraine and a massive humiliation for Russia, as it was the only regional capital conquered by the invasion force. Novaya Kakhovka, however, has a very important strategic significance in its own right.
The Novaya Kakhovka dam, on the Dnieper river, is the key for water supplies to Crimea. The Crimean peninsula, invaded and occupied by Russia in 2014, has since suffered heavy problems for their water sources. Most of them come precisely from Novaya Kakhovka, and were disrupted by Ukraine following the 2014 Crimea occupation.
After the current invasion, Russia managed to conquer Kherson and the close-by Novaya Kakhovka dam, re-supplying Crimea with water.
After the recent re-conquest of Kherson by Ukraine, Kyiv’s forces started to bomb the Novaya Kakhovka dam. Russia, in the past few days, started evacuating civilians, much like it did before leaving Kherson back to Ukraine.
With both Kherson and Novaya Kakhovka back in Ukrainian hands, they will most likely block the water supply to Crimea once again.
Will Ukraine win the war
Ukraine surely has had its string of successes lately. The counter-offensive to retake Kherson was a brilliant tactical and strategic move, and many see Russia as defeated already.
However, one must not be blinded by optimism and good news. Russia still occupies almost 20% of Ukrainian territory, and they still retain superiority in numbers. Heading into the winter will not favor big military operations, so it is likely that the Ukrainian counter-offensive will stop for now.
This will give Russia time to reorganize while Ukraine suffers the consequences of a cold winter with constant power supplies. Russia, however, has problems of its own.
Without water and with no major supply center in the region, the route to Crimea lays basically open for the Ukrainian army. Indeed, Kherson was so easy to conquer at the start of the invasion because there were no natural barriers between Crimea and the city. Now, the situation is flipped in favor of Ukraine.
Supplies for Russia keep being a major issue. The Ukrainian military can keep bombing the Kerch bridge and disrupting the already feeble Russian lines. Russia is overextended and will likely have to concede even more territory. And this will be seen as another humiliation for Putin, who has nothing to show for in this war after the loss of Kherson.
There is no way to predict how the war is going to end, but these factors will likely play a major role in the months to come.
