As Ukraine closes in on Kherson, Russia begins evacuating civilians. Whether this means they are preparing for a full retreat or for battle it remains to be seen.
The Ukrainian counter-offensive continues as Kyiv’s army sweepes in the southern front towards Kherson. The city is the only regional capital taken by Russia during its offensive. It fell down to Moscow’s hands almost immediately after the start of the invasion.
Kherson is probably the most important focus of the entire war right now. Indeed, the Ukrainians have wanted to retake it for months and it was the whole objective of the counter-offensive. The huge win up north, in the region of Kharkiv, was achievable only with the element of surprise: Ukraine said they wanted to re-take Kherson in the south and that’s where the Russian concentrated all their forces, leaving Kharkiv with weaker defenses.
Despite the humiliating defeat in the region of Kharkiv, however, Russia cares much more about Kherson and it is unclear whether or not they’ll be able to defend it. Not only is it the sole regional capital the Russian managed to conquer, it is also the key to Crimea. Kherson and a nearby village, Nova Kakhovka, hold the water reserves for Crimea, and it’s a big enough city to be the start for an offensive further south. And Ukraine probably aims at Crimea, signaling it with the recent attack over the Kerch bridge.
Ukraine is getting closer and closer to Kherson, so much so that the Russian appointed governor, Vladimir Saldo, requested the evacuation of civilians further into Russia’s territory. The citizens of Kherson are to be evacuated to Rostov and Krasnodar, two Russian cities in the Caucasus.
However, this isn’t necessarily a sign of military retreat. On the contrary, it might be a sign of resistance.
Will Russia hold onto Kherson
Let’s get one thing straight: Ukraine cannot win a costly urban battle in Kherson. Such battles need less tactics and more brutal force, something that Ukraine does not have at the moment. The siege of Mariupol was hard enough for Russia, with numerical superiority and the momentum of the initial offensive. The only way Ukraine can re-conquer Kherson is if the Russian retreat.
Kyiv was smart enough to cut Russian supplies to the city. Indeed, this was the main objective of both the Kerch bridge attack and the counter-offensive around Kharkiv. By displacing Russian supplies, Moscow’s army will be forced to retreat from Kherson. The city is also badly placed for Russian forces: it sits on the West bank of the river Dnieper, hence it is hardly defendable and easily surroundable for Ukraine.
At the same time, however, Ukraine might be running out of time. The infamous Rasputiza (the muds and rains season) is coming, a climate condition that will tamper any Ukrainian or Russian movement in the region.
According to Western military officials, Ukraine might be able to reconquer Kherson early next week. But Russia’s evacuation of civilians might mean they are preparing to fight for every inch in the ground.
The future in always uncertain in times of war.
