A few hours ago, the occupied regions of Ukraine have been called to vote for their annexation to Russia in several referendums. What this might entail scares many western powers.
Today, Friday the 23rd of September, marks the start of a series of referendums for the annexation of vast swaths of Ukrainian land into the Russian Federation. Specifically, the referendums will involve the Luhansk, Donbass, Zaporizhzhia and Kherson Oblasts; basically all the regions currently occupied by the Russian army.
Indeed, the regions themselves are much bigger than the territory occupied at the moment. The Donbass, for example, is only 60% in Russian hands, but it’s also the region where war lasted the most. It began 8 years ago, when Russia also invaded and annexed Crimea. Overall, not including Crimea, the referendums would take away from Ukraine an area roughly the size of Hungary and Portugal combined.
This is not the first time Putin uses the referendum as a diplomatic weapon. The first time it happened was, once again, in Crimea. After the invasion, Russia arranged a vote for the “legal” annexation, which favored it by 97%. Obviously, this referendum was not recognized by any western power.
And neither will be these referendums, the last of which will be on the 27th of September. US president Joe Biden called it a “sham referendum”, while Macron and the European Union at large agreed that the results will not be considered valid. The voting ballots will be patrolled by the Russian military, and the regions have been quite literally razed to the ground by the fight. Definitely not the ideal set for a legitimate referendum.
But what really scares western governments aren’t the referendums themselves, it’s the effect they might have on the future of the war.
Will Putin use the nuclear bomb
One day after announcing the referendums, Russia’s president Vladimir Putin declared a partial mobilization of the Russian army, roughly 300.000 new conscripts to be sent on the front. In the very same speech, however, Putin also said that “The citizens of Russia can be sure that the territorial integrity of our Motherland, our independence and freedom will be ensured, I emphasize this again, with all the means at our disposal.”
According to Russia’s nuclear doctrine, the use of the nuclear weapon is justified only when the existence of the Russian State itself is in danger. But what does this mean exactly? Surely, Putin will use the nuclear bomb before any NATO soldier could march in Red Square, but how much before?
If the four Ukrainian Oblasts will be annexed with these illegal referendums (and they most certainly will), Putin will consider them as an integral part of the Russian state. He would have “legal” justification for the use of a nuclear weapon against any force that tries to conquer them, including the Ukrainians.
Many analysts, however, consider this a simple bluff (despite what Putin himself says). The use of a nuclear war against Ukraine would probably destroy Russia from the inside as well, given that it would finally and definitely be isolated from the rest of the world.
And a country so big cannot be simply isolated without any major collapse happening, either inside or outside.
