SpaceX’s IPO remains one of the most closely watched market events of 2026.
Elon Musk’s aerospace company - now widely seen as a proxy for investor appetite for artificial intelligence following its combination with xAI - made a highly successful debut on Wall Street.
According to several market observers interviewed by Money.it, including Atlas CPA Index founder Brennan Kolar, the offering was nothing short of a triumph.
SpaceX Jumps 19% on Nasdaq Debut
SpaceX shares closed their first day of trading on the Nasdaq on Friday, June 12, up 19% at $161, compared with the IPO price of $135 per share.
The rally pushed the company’s market capitalization from roughly $1.77 trillion to more than $2 trillion.
The stock has continued to trade higher, supported by a broader risk-on environment across global equity markets following news of a diplomatic agreement between the United States and Iran.
But investors are already looking beyond the IPO pop.
With the listing now complete and SpaceX officially listed on the Nasdaq, the attention is shifting to a more important question: was Friday’s surge simply the result of IPO enthusiasm, or does SPCX still have meaningful upside ahead?
To explore the stock’s prospects, Money.it spoke with Kolar and other analysts about the scenarios that could unfold over the coming months.
Kolar said he was “not too surprised by the demand given Musk’s media presence and brand”, adding that “the valuation is partly justified by fundamentals”.
The Importance of the Free Float
Kolar pointed to SpaceX’s consolidated 2025 financial results, which showed approximately $19 billion in revenue and a net loss of $4.9 billion, “largely attributable to xAI. The real asset is Starlink, with about $11.4 billion in value on its own”, he said.
One of the most important variables for investors to monitor now is the company’s float.
According to Kolar, who previously served as a senior financial analyst at Alliance Partners, “the thin float will likely lead to volatility down the road, so the price will be something to monitor in the coming weeks”. He continued noting that “at roughly 100x sales, the price estimates a decade of flawless operational execution”.
Can SPCX ultimately justify the expectations embedded in its valuation?
Kolar outlined a wide range of possible outcomes, emphasizing that any estimate of fair value over the next one to two years depends heavily on execution and market conditions.
“My estimation of fair value for the stock in the next 1-2 years is broad based on different scenarios. Bearish I would estimate $600-800 billion or about $60-80 a share. Standard performance would arrive near launch price of about $125-135 a share or $1.3-1.6 trillion. Bullish estimate would be $2.6 trillion or more; $200 or more a share”.
Kolar also sees the IPO as an important litmus test for investor sentiment toward AI and the broader technology sector.
That said, he cautioned that investors should not overlook potential headwinds facing Starlink, highlighting that they “should also consider roadblocks for StarLink including country-level bans and new low-orbit competition”.
He also mentioned a critical level to watch: “If the stock breaks below $135 once the float widens, that is a cause for concern in future AI investment”.
Michael Benoit, founder of ContractorBond.org and President of Pacific United Insurance Services, pointed to another risk that may have been overshadowed by the excitement surrounding the offering:
“The only risk associated with the SpaceX IPO is that. It’s not the technology! Due diligence is supposed to have an emotional impact on the brand. Not to mention, many retail investors will not pass over the fact that a significant portion of SpaceX revenues will be in the form of government contracts with terms and budgetary limitations. Small contractors have been destroyed due to the lack of an anchor contract to keep them afloat. For a while, everything was fine for the business and then it wasn’t”.
Why Value Investors Remain Skeptical
Robert R. Johnson, PhD, CFA, CAIA, Professor of Finance, Heider College of Business, Creighton University, Co-founder and CEO of Economic Index Associates, a NYC-based firm that creates investable indices, expressed a similarly cautious view.
SpaceX “is too speculative for me, or most value investors, to put a price range target over the next 12-24 months. A typical value investor would say that it is wildly overvalued. Much of the valuation of the firm is predicated on the narrative that Elon Musk is a genius and that the firm will be ultimately be incredibly successful”.
This implies that “a value investor would not be interested in this offering, as it appears closer to being ’priced to perfection’ rather than having any sort of margin of safety”, adding that “a typical value investor would say that it is wildly overvalued”.
In Johnson’s view, a significant portion of the company’s valuation is driven by the narrative surrounding Elon Musk and the belief that he can continue delivering extraordinary outcomes.
Put differently, the stock appears to be pricing in perfection while offering little margin of safety.
He also noted that “the biggest argument for being interested in the IPO is that if the firm is included in indexes like the S&P 500, then there will be demand for the shares” but “currently, Space X would not meet the S&P 500 listing requiremensts as it is currently not profitable” .
Johnson also warned that SpaceX’s debut comes at a time when broader equity market valuations remain historically elevated:
“We have to go back to 1999 to find a time when the market is as richly valued with respect to the Shiller CAPE ratio. In data from 1999–2000, when the CAPE ratio was similar to what it is today, IPOs lost in average of 53.1% over a three year holding period. Long-term investors in these IPOs lost over half their money. But, those same IPOs jumped on the first day by 64.6%. Short term, speculators were rewarded by purchasing these IPOs and immediately selling them”.
Is SpaceX Really an AI Trade?
Johnson also challenged the widespread assumption that SpaceX’s valuation primarily reflects enthusiasm for AI: “There is an element of a broader signal for sentiment in AI. But, make no mistake, the SpaceX valuation is all about Elon Musk ”.
Money.it also interviewed Matt Hasan, founder of the The AI Humanist Movement and senior executive roles at Deloitte, Capgemini, IBM, AT&T, and Citigroup.
He explained that “the current valuation undoubtedly reflects substantial future expectations. Investors are effectively betting that SpaceX will expand its influence across communications, defense, logistics, and data infrastructure”.
Hasan also noted that “the valuation reflects future strategic positioning as much as present fundamentals”.
The greatest risk, in his view, is concentration.
“The key risk is concentration. Markets are assuming that today’s technology leaders will maintain their advantages far into the future. History suggests that technological leadership can be powerful, but it is never guaranteed”.
Wall Street’s Bearish Call
Among the most pessimistic analysts, CFRA initiated coverage of the stock with a “Sell” rating and a 12-month price target of $115, which reflects nearly 29% drop from Friday’s closing price.
CFRA explained its view “due to the company’s extremely ambitious growth strategy, elevated valuation expectations, and significant capital intensity”.
In the three months ended March 2026, SpaceX reported capital expenditures of $10.1 billion, up from $4.1 billion during the same period a year earlier.
A significant portion of that spending was directed toward AI-related investments.
The key question now is whether SpaceX can grow into one of the largest valuations ever assigned to a public company, or whether investors are once again paying a premium for a compelling narrative that leaves little room for disappointment.
For now, SPCX is more than an aerospace stock. It has become a referendum on investors’ willingness to pay for the promise of AI-driven growth.
