Crédit Agricole has asked Banco BPM to open merger talks. On Monday, November 9, 2026, the French group, already the Milan-based bank’s largest shareholder with 29.6% of the capital, proposed combining Banco BPM with Crédit Agricole Italia, its Italian subsidiary. The deal would create Italy’s third-largest banking group, with roughly 6.5 million customers and more than 2,300 branches, still listed on the Milan Stock Exchange (Piazza Affari) and built around Banco BPM.
Investors moved fast. Banco BPM closed Monday at EUR 14.88, up 10.7% from Friday’s EUR 13.445.
For customers and shareholders, the question is what changes, and when.
Where the deal stands
There is no agreement yet. Crédit Agricole has put forward what it calls a “friendly” proposal, and Banco BPM’s board of directors will get a first briefing on it at its meeting on Thursday, November 12, 2026. This is not a takeover bid. It is an invitation to negotiate.
Even with an understanding between the two banks, the road would be long. The deal would need approval from Banco BPM’s extraordinary shareholder meeting, from the European Central Bank and from the Italian government, which would have to rule using its special golden power- authority (Italy’s foreign-investment screening powers), on top of antitrust review. Crédit Agricole points to the second half of 2027 as a possible completion date. The legal structure of the transaction, the French group says, has yet to be agreed between the parties.
The timing follows a decisive turn in Italy’s banking consolidation wave. On October 29, 2026, the shareholder meeting of Monte dei Paschi di Siena (MPS) rejected the share exchange offer that the Siena-based bank had launched on Banco BPM, clearing the field for the French option.
What changes for account holders: for now, nothing
Anyone with a checking account, a mortgage or a deposit at Banco BPM or Crédit Agricole Italia need do nothing for the time being. Until a merger is completed, the two banks remain separate entities, with separate contracts, branches and digital services.
If the deal goes through, the bank that emerges from the merger, or the one that absorbs the other, takes over all existing relationships. Accounts, mortgages, loans and investments carry on without new signatures, and the merger by itself is not enough to change their terms. Banco BPM is the pivot of the project, so it will most likely be Crédit Agricole Italia’s 2.9 million customers who need to watch the bank’s communications most closely when integration comes.
Some practical details usually change at the point of migration, from IBAN account numbers to online banking and app credentials, and on to cards and the customer’s home branch. The bank must give advance notice explaining how and when the switch will happen. That is the moment to check direct debits, salary or pension deposits and automatic payments.
Can terms change? What the law says
Fees and interest rates are what usually worry customers when two banks merge. Their protection is Article 118 of Italy’s Consolidated Banking Act (Testo unico bancario)-. Under it, a unilateral change to contract terms is possible only if the contract provides for it, must have a justified reason and must be communicated at least two months in advance. Up to the date the change takes effect, the customer can withdraw free of charge and keep the old terms until the relationship is closed.
The rule is stricter for fixed-term contracts such as mortgages and loans. Under the same conditions, the bank can act only on clauses that do not concern interest rates, and the rates themselves remain untouchable. Only for customers other than consumers and micro-enterprises may the contract allow rates to be revised in connection with specific events set out at the outset. Anyone with a fixed-rate mortgage keeps it as it is. Anyone on a variable rate keeps paying based on the index and the spread written into their contract.
Watch out for deposit insurance
Deposit insurance matters for anyone holding substantial sums at both banks. The Fondo Interbancario di Tutela dei Depositi, Italy’s deposit guarantee scheme, covers up to EUR 100,000 (about USD 108,000) per depositor per bank. Today, someone with EUR 80,000 (about USD 86,400) at Banco BPM and another EUR 80,000 at Crédit Agricole Italia is protected on the full amount.
Once the merger is complete, the two banks would become one and the EUR 100,000 ceiling would apply to the combined total. The issue concerns only a small number of savers, and anyone in that position has until the second half of 2027, the earliest the integration could happen, to decide whether to move some cash.
Branches, the knot still to be untied
Crédit Agricole’s statement makes no commitment on branch closures or employment levels. The two networks are concentrated in the north of the country, particularly in Lombardy and Emilia-Romagna, and those geographic overlaps are exactly what competition authorities will have to address. In deals of this size they can require branches to be divested.
Crédit Agricole estimates annual pre-tax synergies of EUR 800 million (about USD 864 million), without specifying how much would come from cost savings and how much from higher revenues. The government’s stance will weigh here too. According to press reports, as early as 2025 it had let the French group know it wanted guarantees on lending to small and medium-sized businesses, a core customer base for Banco BPM.
What it means for Banco BPM shareholders
On the table for shareholders are a premium and an extraordinary dividend. The premium is 20%, but that does not mean the shares will be paid 20% above market prices. As Crédit Agricole explains, it is calculated by comparing the expected 2027 price/earnings multiples at which Banco BPM and the assets contributed by the French group would be valued, and it will translate into an exchange ratio that has yet to be defined.
The extraordinary dividend is worth EUR 1 billion (about USD 1.08 billion) and would go to current shareholders, though the statement does not say who will pay it or when. With roughly 1.5 billion Banco BPM shares outstanding, a figure derived from the interim dividend just approved, that works out at about EUR 0.66 gross per share.
The payout already planned comes on top. On November 25, 2026, Banco BPM will pay an interim dividend on 2026 earnings of EUR 0.50 per share, with an ex-dividend date of November 23, 2026, and it has raised its estimate of the total 2026 dividend to more than EUR 1 per share. For an Italian resident, dividends are taxed at 26%.
There is a flip side. Crédit Agricole would not buy out the other shareholders, but by contributing its Italian operations it would rise from 29.6% to roughly 45% of the new group, while the combined stake of the other shareholders would fall from about 70% to about 55%. In exchange, the French group estimates, Banco BPM’s 2027 earnings per share would grow by around 24%. That calculation assumes fully phased-in synergies, which usually take several years to achieve.
The shareholder vote, where small investors count
The most delicate step for shareholders will be the extraordinary shareholder meeting. By crossing the 30% ownership threshold, Crédit Agricole would normally have to launch a mandatory tender offer for all the shares. The proposal instead envisages using the exemption for mergers provided by the rules of Consob, Italy’s market regulator, known as the whitewash.
Two conditions apply. The merger must pass with at least two-thirds of the capital represented at the meeting, and it must not be voted against by a majority of the shareholders present other than Crédit Agricole and the shareholder or shareholders holding, including jointly, the majority or relative-majority stake, provided it exceeds 10%. The final word on the exemption therefore rests with Banco BPM’s other shareholders, funds and small savers included.
Before deciding whether to stay in the stock, wait for the response of Banco BPM’s board and, if talks get under way, for the exchange ratio. Only then will it be clear how much the premium is really worth against current prices, which after Monday’s jump already factor in part of the expectations.
Editor’s note
This article was originally published in Italian on money.it by Flavia Provenzani on November 10, 2026 as «Crédit Agricole propone la fusione a Banco BPM, cosa può cambiare per correntisti e azionisti». It has been translated and adapted for an international audience by the Money.it International desk.
