The United States is set to break oil production records in 2024, and again in 2025. Doing so prevents oil prices surges, but cannot be done forever.
The United States will reach a new record high in oil production in 2024, which will be broken again in 2025 according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA). The United States is currently the world’s largest oil producer, extracting more crude in the last 15 years than any other nation.
According to the EIA, the nation’s energy watchdog, US oil production peaked in 2023 at 12.9 million barrels daily. This level will likely be passed in 2024 at 13.2 million, and then again in 2025 at 13.4 million barrels per day.
Natural gas extraction also reached a peak and will continue to do so. From 11.2 billion cubic/feet of gas per day in 2023, it will reach 12.4 billion this year and 14.4 billion in 2025.
These levels have been reached under the Biden administration, who pledged to reduce dependency on oil during his campaign trail. Indeed, over the years of his presidency, Joe Biden barred new offshore extraction in Alaska and imposed new incentives for the companies’ energy transition.
It is unlikely that the 2024 US elections will change the current predictions. Donald Trump, the main Republican candidate, is strongly opposed to green measures. But even if he was close to environmentalists’ demands, there are many geopolitical imperatives the US must answer to.
The silent war on oil
The United States ramped up oil production under the Biden administration in response to a general energy crisis gripping the Western world. Following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Europe and the United States found themselves deprived of Siberian oil and gas, two of their main energy sources.
At the same time, Saudi Arabia and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) colluded with Russia to artificially increase oil prices. They reduced production by 1.6 million barrels per day, steadily driving oil prices up.
In response, the United States deployed its strategic oil reserve and, as we saw, increased production. Doing so prevented global oil prices from breaking the psychological $100 per barrel level, even after the outbreak of war in the Middle East.
At the moment, oil prices are coming down after other OPEC countries and the United States ramped up production.
However, the United States cannot afford to keep production rates at this level. Their reserves are quickly depleting, with some experts believing they already passed the halfway point. By the 2030s, the United States might find itself importing oil again.
A future energy crisis in development, according to many. However, it is allowing the United States to maintain control over global oil prices for the moment.
