The ongoing proxy war between NATO and Russia could catapult the Arctic region into the spotlight at any moment.
The Arctic region has long been a source of interest in offshore drilling, particularly during times of high commodity prices. However, in recent years, it has also become increasingly attractive as a trade corridor, especially for the non-Arctic nation of China.
The Northwest Passage connects North America to the Pacific, while the Northeast Passage runs along the coast of Russia to the Asia-Pacific region. Russia regards the latter as a national waterway.
In early August 2007, Russian explorers dived deep beneath the North Pole in a mini-submarine and planted their national flag on the seabed to symbolically reclaim the energy riches of the Arctic, namely the area around the Lomonosov Ridge, which has been argued to be part of the continental plate
Over the next few years, the United States and Canada conducted research to try to prove that the ridge is part of the North American continental plate.
The United Nations Law of the Sea
The action taken by Russia complied with the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), which allows parties to make territorial claims to the continental shelf within a specified period of time. The Commission for the Continental Shelf was set up precisely for this purpose.
UNCLOS is a highly technical geopolitical treaty that took decades to negotiate and codify. It tackles a wide range of issues relating to the use of the world’s oceans, including territorial disputes over fishing grounds and contemporary mining ambitions, as well as the calculation of maritime boundaries and exclusive economic zones.
The United States has not ratified this important United Nations convention and would have been rebuked by the territorial implications of the document. Since then, there has been something akin to an "Arctic monopoly race" as various nations conduct research and stake their claims. The Arctic Council served as a forum for these debates, but it has been in limbo since the imposition of sanctions by some 42 states.
Threats and Opportunities
The warming of the Arctic region, which is most evident in shrinking sea ice, has both negative and positive effects. Methane gas emissions are expected to increase as permafrost melts, but the thaw will also open up new Arctic shipping lanes.
In 2007, the Northwest Passage was completely open to navigation for the first time in the history of observation, and 2020 was a record year for the Northern Sea Route: it was completely ice-free as early as mid-July.
The new Northeast Passage, a 3,500-mile northern shipping route between Asia and Europe, will be an essential maritime component of an Arcto-Pacific region.
The commercial - and potentially military - use of this new route, which is perceived by many in Russia as an analogue of the Suez Canal, has already led to the establishment of a fleet and icebreaking terminals along Russia’s northern coast.
Rosneft’s flagship project, Vostokoil, also aims to bring oil and gas from these still untapped fields to customers in the east. Vostokoil was underway long before the start of the war in Ukraine.
As a result, millions of new barrels of crude oil are expected to enter the market, and this market is east rather than west of Suez or Moscow. Before February 24, 2022, this was also obvious for economic and demographic reasons.
From a West Asian perspective, where much of the world’s energy resources are located, this promises a dramatic shift in transportation corridors. The Suez Canal was the waterway of the European era, the Panama Canal marked the American century, and the new pattern of trade corridors across Eurasia will shape contemporary relationships for an entirely new era.
It also means that the ominous "last barrel of oil" could be Russian and not Arab. The "last barrel of oil" is a statistical unit projected into future oil market calculations. Based on exploration costs and the global price of oil, it has long been an accepted fact that the last barrel of oil to reach the market will be Saudi Arabia, due to the kingdom’s vast reserves and low production costs.
Geopolitical significance of the Arctic passage
The importance of the Northeast Passage has increased significantly following geopolitical changes in the region.
China has also expanded its presence in the Arctic, with the first strategic partnership between China and Iceland established in 2013. While Beijing is interested in potential hydrocarbon reserves in the region, it is probably more interested in new waterways that can make save time and money for transportation.
Given the importance of the topic, the Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok in September 2022 devoted various groups to this trade route. I have attended several of them as a speaker and have been impressed by the advanced stage of development of this new trade corridor.
The Arctic passage will also complement the North-South International Transport Corridor (INSTC), which will connect waterways and railways from Russia through Iran to India.
The Northeast Passage, which as mentioned above is considered a Russian national waterway, is patrolled and kept safe by a constant Russian military presence in the Arctic.
Seen from the Mediterranean Sea or from the shores of the Persian Gulf in western Asia, the vast Arcto-Pacific region looks like a different planet, but for the so-called Arctic Five (states close to the Arctic Ocean: Canada, Denmark, Norway, Russia and the United States) it is a dominant agenda.
A new cold war
The ongoing proxy war between NATO and Russia could catapult the Arctic region into the spotlight at any moment. Russia’s state-owned Atomflot operates five nuclear-powered icebreakers, a stark reminder of Moscow’s determination to advance the former Soviet Union’s strategic priority to dominate and develop the Arctic.
By the end of this decade, the fleet will be joined by at least five other nuclear-powered icebreakers, each about twice as large and powerful as today’s vessels.
The Arctic Council’s statement vision for the region states:
"We have transformed this region into a unique international cooperation area...We are confident that there is no problem that we cannot solve together through our cooperation relations based on existing international law and goodwill."
As the winter of 2023 deepens, the climate, war in Ukraine and sanctions against Russian fuel will impact energy use and prices – as will the growing number of pipelines heading east rather than further afield. west. Original article published on Money.it Italy 2023-02-20 08:10:01. Original title: La conquista dell’Artico è il campo di gioco dei futuri equilibri geopolitici
