Erdogan and Kilicdaroglu will face each other tomorrow in Turkey’s elections. What changed since the first round?
Tomorrow on May 28th, Turkey will host its second round of elections for the first time in the country’s presidential history. The ballot will be between incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and major opposition candidate Kemal Kilicdaroglu.
The first round took place two weeks ago, on May 14th. The election was almost decided with Erdogan getting 49.4% of the votes, while Kilicdaroglu remained behind at 45%. As no candidate gained an absolute majority, the two will face each other in a second ballot.
Most polls published before the election had Kilicdaroglu ahead by a few percentage points. These predictions were wrong and Erdogan is now the favorite candidate to win the elections.
Recep Tayyip Erdogan has ruled Turkey virtually unopposed since 2003, first as Prime Minister and then as President. In 2018, he changed the Turkish constitution, turning the country into a Presidential Republic and granting the President (himself) strong and centralized powers.
His iron fist allowed Erdogan to control most of the narrative before and during the elections. For example, many international observers pointed out the vastly unequal time dedicated to President Erdogan on Turkish public TV.
This allowed the incumbent president to focus the public speech on his successes, brushing aside Turkey’s major economic issues.
Turkey’s geopolitical ambitions
Under Erdogan’s 20-year-long rule, Turkey strengthened its position on the world stage, becoming one of the most important countries in the region.
Erdogan extended Turkey’s sphere of influence to North Africa, the Caucasus and Central Asia. He intervened men-on-ground in Syria four times, trying to topple the rival Assad regime. He also helped Russian interests in Libya, securing an informal alliance with Vladimir Putin.
Meanwhile, Turkey reinforced its position within NATO. The Western alliance now relies on Turkey as a mediator with Russia and China and a crucial player in the Middle East.
With relationships between the US and Saudi Arabia souring, Turkey is now the most important American ally in the region.
The renewed geopolitical power, however, came at a cost for the Turkish population. Increasingly heavier tolls have been put on quality of life and economic welfare.
Inflation is at a whopping 85%, with Erdogan outright refusing to address it as a problem. The Turkish Lira continues its devaluation, plummeting over 92% in 10 years.
Indeed, news of Erdogan being the favorite at the elections devalued the Lira even more.
The result of the Turkish elections is not set in stone yet. So far, no other candidate has brought Turkey to a second round, therefore Kilicdaroglu’s chances are not zero.
Realistically, though, Kilicdaroglu’s uphill battle will end tomorrow with a defeat.
