Preparing for a spring counter offensive, Ukraine is likely to refuse the Easter truce proposed by Russia.
As the Easter festivities roll over the Western Christian world, the Orthodox countries prepare to celebrate “their” Easter on April 16th. Ukraine and Russia, of course, are two of the world’s most prominent Orthodox nations, therefore there have been some talks about an Easter truce.
The war ignited over a year ago when Russian troops invaded Ukrainian sovereign territory, starting the most important European conflict since WWII. In 2022 there was no Easter truce as Russia was mopping up the bloody siege of Mariupol, which left thousands dead on both sides. Ukraine asked for a truce, but was rejected by Russia as it would have disproportionately advantaged the Ukrainian forces retreating from Mariupol.
This year, according to the US-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW), it was Russia asking for an Easter truce. Since last time, Ukraine has regained momentum and pushed back the Russian troops on three different fronts.
At the moment, Russia is trying to finish the conquest of Bakhmut. Until one month ago, a Russian victory in Bakhmut was considered a matter of time, though progress has shown to be slower than expected. The Ukrainian defenders, though almost cut off from their base in Kyiv, are still fiercely resisting inside Bakhmut.
Russia could use a truce to regroup and concentrate their forces for a final assault. Of course, Ukraine is perfectly aware of it and will likely not concede a truce.
A spring counteroffensive
There is a further reason behind the likely refusal of an Easter truce by Ukraine. Since the reconquest of Kherson in October 2022, the front has remained pretty much stable. That is because both sides are preparing for a “final” counter offensive to end the war.
In the case of Russia, such a counter offensive would start from Belarus. However, the attack is unlikely to gain momentum as the front is highly defended and the Ukrainians expect an assault from that sector. Further, Ukraine already repelled a similar attack coming from Belarus at the very start of the war, when they didn’t have any Western equipment yet.
As for Ukraine, their publicly declared final goal is to retake Crimea. The peninsula was occupied by Russia back in 2014, and is by many considered a red line for the Kremlin.
The Ukrainian spring counter offensive, for which they have prepared all winter, will make a first approach to Crimea. The conquest of the peninsula proper is a matter for the future, but a successful counter offensive would sever the land connection between Crimea and Russia.
Without any direct means of defending it, Russia would have to rely only on the fragile Kerch bridge to supply Ukraine with equipment.
Russia obviously wants to delay such a counter offensive as long as possible, hence why they proposed an Easter truce. There are no guarantees that the Ukrainian counter offensive will succeed, but if there is any possibility of failure, Russia will take it.
